NAC Breda vs FC Volendam – 21 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Feb 21 · 19:00 Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

NAC Breda 16th · 19 pts · 23 played LDDLW

First leg1–2 1–0Full time

FC Volendam 14th · 24 pts · 23 played WLDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

NAC Breda were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. NAC Breda had 7.1 days of rest, FC Volendam 8 and had to travel 103 km.

Away travel103 kmRest days7.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

NAC Breda44%

Draw26%

FC Volendam30%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.24

NAC Breda42%

Draw27%

FC Volendam31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.23

NAC Breda43%

Draw26%

FC Volendam31%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.26

NAC Breda36%

Draw27%

FC Volendam37%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.39

NAC Breda43%

Draw27%

FC Volendam30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.22

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Breda)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 46

Team strength

NAC Breda

FC Volendam

14 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

14 Current StrengthIn forecast 14

19 AttackIn forecast 14

19 DefenceIn forecast 19

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NAC Breda

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Volendam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NAC Breda

FC Volendam

1.04 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.65

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

61% Scored inContext 70%

13% Clean sheetsContext 4%

12.87 ShotsContext 10.39

4.41 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57

33% On target shareContext 34%

8.09 Shots in the boxContext 6.30

60% Box shareContext 60%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.06 OffsidesContext 1.75

12.70 Shots allowedContext 18.04

5.26 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.17

3.00 BlocksContext 5.52

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.65

70% Save rateContext 75%

49% PossessionIn forecast 44%

395 PassesContext 358

311 Accurate passesContext 288

79% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.91 FoulsContext 9.35

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.96

1.74 Yellow cardsContext 1.43

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 0.86

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.73

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

50% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.20 ShotsContext 10.00

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

32% On target shareContext 34%

8.78 Shots in the boxContext 5.90

58% Box shareContext 58%

6% ConversionContext 9%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.22

12.20 Shots allowedContext 18.80

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.30

3.00 BlocksContext 5.80

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.60

73% Save rateContext 77%

51% PossessionIn forecast 42%

415 PassesContext 341

327 Accurate passesContext 270

79% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.83

9.70 FoulsContext 9.60

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NAC Breda

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km310 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Volendam

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel103 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	NAC Breda	FC Volendam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Feb	8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	103 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	310 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NAC Breda Confirmed XI

4-4-2

99D. Bielica(G)

4B. Kemper 8C. Leemans 3D. Odoi 25C. Valerius

14K. Sowah 90L. Holtby 16M. Balard 7C. Brym

19A. Salama 24A. Ayew

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

FC Volendam Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1K. van Oevelen(G)

32Y. Leliendal 20N. Verschuren 3M. Amevor 5P. Ugwu

7O. Kökçü 23D. Kwakman 40R. van Cruijsen

29B. Pauwels 10B. Kuwas 77B. Ould-Chikh

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

NAC Breda Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Volendam Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

NAC Breda+0.6 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FC Volendam-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

NAC Breda · Home 1.00points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-6
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 1.50

FC Volendam · Away 0.45points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-8
Scored: 0.64
Conceded: 2.09

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	NAC Breda	FC Volendam
Heracles	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	W 3–0 H
Excelsior	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Twente	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	D 1–1 H
PSV Eindhoven	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H	W 2–1 HL 0–3 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 3–4 HL 0–3 A	L 2–3 H
Groningen	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H	L 0–3 A
Telstar	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 A
Utrecht	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 HL 0–3 A
Heerenveen	D 3–3 A	D 1–1 A
PEC Zwolle	D 2–2 H	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H
Ajax	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 AD 2–2 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Feyenoord	L 0–2 A	L 1–3 A
Points	19 of 66 · 0.86 per game	21 of 66 · 0.95 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 NAC Breda wins0 draws1 FC Volendam wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

8 Nov 2025FC Volendam2–1NAC Breda

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	NAC Breda	FC Volendam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.04	1.13
Conceded per game	1.57	1.65
Match goals	2.61	2.78	2.77
Over 1.5	65%	87%
Over 2.5	52%	65%	52%
Over 3.5	26%	22%
Both teams scored	52%	65%	56%
Clean sheets	13%	4%
Failed to score	39%	30%
Games	23	23

	NAC Breda	FC Volendam	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.70
Match goals	2.30	2.60	2.77
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	52%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	NAC Breda	FC Volendam	League
Corners
Corners won	5.17	3.86
Corners conceded	3.96	6.71
Match total	9.13	10.57	10.30
Over 8.5	57% 13/23	71% 15/21
Over 9.5	43% 10/23	62% 13/21
Over 10.5	39% 9/23	52% 11/21
Cards
Cards	1.96	1.48
Opponent cards	1.96	2.09
Match total	3.92	3.57	3.51
Over 3.5	52% 12/23	43% 10/23
Over 4.5	43% 10/23	35% 8/23

	NAC Breda	FC Volendam	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.44
Corners conceded	3.70	7.78
Match total	9.70	11.22	10.30
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.90
Opponent cards	1.80	2.00
Match total	3.60	3.90	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 46 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.98league 3.31

Red cards0.24league 0.20

Cards 5+28%league 31%

Fouls21.9league 21.6

Penalties0.20league 0.25

Home wins43%league 44%

NAC Breda7 with this referee

Record3-2-2 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.6 Pens for · against0 · 0

D24 Jan 26A · PSV Eindhoven2–23
W1 Nov 25H · GO Ahead Eagles1–04
W20 Sep 25H · Heracles2–11
L10 May 25A · Fortuna Sittard0–12
D15 Feb 25H · Feyenoord0–02

FC Volendam2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.5 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L2 Dec 23H · PEC Zwolle0–52
L11 Aug 23H · Vitesse1–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.