NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
NAC Breda
16th · 19 pts · 23 played
LDDLW
First leg1–2
1–0Full time
FC Volendam
14th · 24 pts · 23 played
WLDWW
NAC Breda43.5%fair odds 2.30
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.79
FC Volendam30.1%fair odds 3.32
Expected goals1.53 – 1.24total 2.77
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Volendam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| NAC Breda ↓ · FC Volendam → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NAC Breda goals, columns FC Volendam goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%7.99
- 2–19.1%10.98
- 1–09.0%11.15
- 2–07.4%13.59
- 1–27.4%13.60
- 0–17.1%14.04
- 0–06.9%14.51
- 2–25.6%17.74
- 0–24.8%20.85
- 3–14.7%21.49
Winning margin
8.8%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 11.38
13.3%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 7.54
21.5%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 4.66
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.79
17.2%
FC Volendam by 1
fair 5.81
8.6%
FC Volendam by 2
fair 11.56
4.3%
FC Volendam by 3+
fair 23.49
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
NAC Breda goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
FC Volendam goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 43.5% | 43.0% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.7% | -0.3 pp |
| FC Volendam win | 30.1% | 30.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 51.1% | +1.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.3% | 55.4% | +0.9 pp |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 1.53 | 1.50 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals FC Volendam | 1.24 | 1.22 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- NAC Breda win43.5%2.30
- Draw26.4%3.79
- FC Volendam win30.1%3.32
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw69.9%1.43
- Double chance NAC Breda or FC Volendam73.6%1.36
- Double chance FC Volendam or draw56.5%1.77
- Draw no bet NAC Breda59.1%1.69
- Draw no bet FC Volendam40.9%2.44
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.577.0%1.30
- Over 2.552.3%1.91
- Over 3.530.2%3.32
- Over 4.514.8%6.77
- Under 1.523.0%4.35
- Under 2.547.7%2.10
- Under 3.569.8%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.3%1.78
- No43.7%2.29
- Yes and over 2.543.8%2.28
- NAC Breda win and yes21.4%4.67
- Draw and yes19.5%5.13
- FC Volendam win and yes15.4%6.49
Team goals
- NAC Breda over 0.578.4%1.28
- NAC Breda over 1.545.3%2.21
- NAC Breda over 2.519.9%5.01
- FC Volendam over 0.571.0%1.41
- FC Volendam over 1.535.1%2.85
- FC Volendam over 2.512.9%7.76
- NAC Breda clean sheet29.0%3.45
- FC Volendam clean sheet21.6%4.63
- NAC Breda win to nil22.1%4.52
- FC Volendam win to nil14.7%6.80
Handicap
- NAC Breda −1.522.1%4.53
- NAC Breda −2.58.8%11.38
- FC Volendam +1.577.9%1.28
- FC Volendam +2.591.2%1.10
- FC Volendam −1.512.9%7.75
- NAC Breda +1.587.1%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored209
Favourite won50.2%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.593
Over 2.5 called right62.2%
BTTS called right63.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37 | 38.1% | 32.4% |
| 40–50% | 75 | 44.9% | 45.3% |
| 50–60% | 47 | 55.1% | 46.8% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 64.1% | 63.0% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 74.3% | 87.5% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 186 of 209 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5969 | 0.5920 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.6% | 41.8% |
| Favourite won | 49.5% | 52.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 186 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 209 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.