NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
NAC Breda43.5%fair odds 2.30
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.79
Fortuna Sittard30.0%fair odds 3.33
Expected goals1.53 – 1.23total 2.76
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fortuna Sittard
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| NAC Breda ↓ · Fortuna Sittard → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NAC Breda goals, columns Fortuna Sittard goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%7.98
- 2–19.1%10.98
- 1–09.0%11.08
- 2–07.4%13.54
- 1–27.3%13.62
- 0–17.2%13.98
- 0–06.9%14.40
- 2–25.6%17.81
- 0–24.8%20.84
- 3–14.6%21.54
Winning margin
8.8%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 11.40
13.3%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 7.54
21.5%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 4.65
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.79
17.2%
Fortuna Sittard by 1
fair 5.81
8.6%
Fortuna Sittard by 2
fair 11.60
4.2%
Fortuna Sittard by 3+
fair 23.66
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
NAC Breda goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Fortuna Sittard goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 43.5% | 43.4% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 30.0% | 29.8% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 50.4% | +1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.1% | 54.8% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 1.53 | 1.49 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Fortuna Sittard | 1.23 | 1.20 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- NAC Breda win43.5%2.30
- Draw26.4%3.79
- Fortuna Sittard win30.0%3.33
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw70.0%1.43
- Double chance NAC Breda or Fortuna Sittard73.6%1.36
- Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw56.5%1.77
- Draw no bet NAC Breda59.2%1.69
- Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard40.8%2.45
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.576.9%1.30
- Over 2.552.2%1.92
- Over 3.530.0%3.34
- Over 4.514.7%6.82
- Under 1.523.1%4.33
- Under 2.547.8%2.09
- Under 3.570.0%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.1%1.78
- No43.9%2.28
- Yes and over 2.543.6%2.29
- NAC Breda win and yes21.3%4.69
- Draw and yes19.5%5.13
- Fortuna Sittard win and yes15.3%6.52
Team goals
- NAC Breda over 0.578.3%1.28
- NAC Breda over 1.545.2%2.21
- NAC Breda over 2.519.9%5.03
- Fortuna Sittard over 0.570.9%1.41
- Fortuna Sittard over 1.534.9%2.86
- Fortuna Sittard over 2.512.8%7.83
- NAC Breda clean sheet29.1%3.43
- Fortuna Sittard clean sheet21.7%4.62
- NAC Breda win to nil22.2%4.51
- Fortuna Sittard win to nil14.7%6.79
Handicap
- NAC Breda −1.522.0%4.54
- NAC Breda −2.58.8%11.40
- Fortuna Sittard +1.578.0%1.28
- Fortuna Sittard +2.591.2%1.10
- Fortuna Sittard −1.512.9%7.78
- NAC Breda +1.587.1%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored17
Favourite won58.8%
Avg chance given to result46.6%
1X2 Brier0.492
Over 2.5 called right64.7%
BTTS called right58.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.8% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 6 | 44.2% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 55.9% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 62.2% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 76.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 12 of 17 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4995 | 0.4951 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.0% | 48.1% |
| Favourite won | 58.3% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 12 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 17 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.