NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard – 17 Aug 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Aug 17 · 19:00 Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

NAC Breda 14th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–1Full time

Fortuna Sittard 12th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

NAC Breda were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. NAC Breda had 8.1 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 9 and had to travel 100 km.

Away travel100 kmRest days8.1 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1

NAC Breda44%

Draw26%

Fortuna Sittard30%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.23

NAC Breda43%

Draw27%

Fortuna Sittard30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

NAC Breda44%

Draw26%

Fortuna Sittard30%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.23

NAC Breda36%

Draw27%

Fortuna Sittard37%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.38

NAC Breda43%

Draw27%

Fortuna Sittard30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Breda)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof

Cards per match 2.8
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 24

Team strength

NAC Breda

Fortuna Sittard

15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

14 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

19 AttackIn forecast 19

19 DefenceIn forecast 19

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NAC Breda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fortuna Sittard

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NAC Breda

Fortuna Sittard

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

70% Scored inContext 60%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.30 ShotsContext 11.60

3.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.70

26% On target shareContext 23%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

54% Box shareContext 65%

6% ConversionContext 6%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.71

12.20 Shots allowedContext 10.30

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.11 BlocksContext 2.89

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

63% Save rateContext 69%

48% PossessionIn forecast 49%

415 PassesContext 374

337 Accurate passesContext 299

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.85

10.60 FoulsContext 12.10

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NAC Breda

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km85 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fortuna Sittard

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel100 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	NAC Breda	Fortuna Sittard
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Aug	9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	100 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	85 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	13.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NAC Breda Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

99D. Bielica(G)

4B. Kemper 22R. Hillen 15E. Mahmutović 25C. Valerius

90L. Holtby 16M. Balard

14K. Sowah 10M. Nassoh 32J. Talvitie

17S. van Hooijdonk

Fortuna Sittard Confirmed XI

5-4-1

31M. Branderhorst(G)

8J. Dahlhaus 28J. Hubner 4S. Adewoye 80R. Fosso 12Ivo Pinto

7K. Peterson 20É. Michut 23P. Brittijn 18D. Limnios

17J. Lonwijk

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

NAC Breda Absences are shown before kick-off

Fortuna Sittard Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

NAC Breda+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

NAC Breda · Home No home games yet this season.

Fortuna Sittard · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 NAC Breda wins0 draws1 Fortuna Sittard wins

Goals per game0.50 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets50% · 50%

10 May 2025Fortuna Sittard1–0NAC Breda
14 Sep 2024NAC Breda1–0Fortuna Sittard

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	NAC Breda	Fortuna Sittard	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	2.00	4.00	2.76
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	NAC Breda	Fortuna Sittard	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	2.00	4.00	2.76
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	NAC Breda	Fortuna Sittard	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	8.00
Corners conceded	3.00	5.00
Match total	7.00	13.00	10.69
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	3.00
Match total	2.00	5.00	3.25
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	NAC Breda	Fortuna Sittard	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	4.50
Corners conceded	3.89	5.30
Match total	8.22	9.80	10.69
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	11% 1/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.00
Opponent cards	1.20	0.90
Match total	3.10	2.90	3.25
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 24 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.38league 3.29

Red cards0.38league 0.12

Cards 5+17%league 29%

Fouls18.2league 21.8

Penalties0.21league 0.18

Home wins42%league 53%

NAC Breda4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 0.8 Pens for · against0 · 1

D24 Apr 25A · AZ Alkmaar1–11
D31 Jan 25H · Heracles1–11
W30 Nov 24H · Almere City FC1–01
L29 Sep 24A · Twente0–12

Fortuna Sittard3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

W28 Feb 25A · Waalwijk2–14
L18 Sep 24A · Ajax0–52
L8 Oct 23H · Twente0–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.