NAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Groningen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 16). Absences weigh more on Groningen. NAC Breda had 6.1 days of rest, Groningen 5.2 and had to travel 218 km.
Away travel218 kmRest days6.1 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
NAC Breda37%
Draw27%
Groningen37%
NAC Breda35%
Draw27%
Groningen37%
NAC Breda35%
Draw27%
Groningen38%
NAC Breda30%
Draw26%
Groningen44%
NAC Breda36%
Draw27%
Groningen36%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Breda)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 23
Team strength
NAC Breda
Groningen
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
19
AttackIn forecast
41
19
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGroningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NAC BredaGroningen
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
2.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
57%
Scored inContext
86%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.29
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.86
36%
On target shareContext
44%
8.43
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
65%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.71
Shots allowedContext
12.57
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.71
BlocksContext
3.17
4.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
69%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
362
PassesContext
391
282
Accurate passesContext
308
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.43
FoulsContext
12.00
13.71
Fouls sufferedContext
10.57
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.62
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
50%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
12.60
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
33%
On target shareContext
41%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
64%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.20
Shots allowedContext
12.50
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.20
BlocksContext
2.67
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
68%
Save rateContext
64%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
406
PassesContext
394
329
Accurate passesContext
312
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.40
FoulsContext
12.00
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NAC Breda
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Groningen
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel218 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NAC Breda |
Groningen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 5.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 218 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 176 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 15.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
12L. Greiml
2B. Lucassen
90L. Holtby
20F. Oldrup Jensen
14K. Sowah
10M. Nassoh
32J. Talvitie
17S. van Hooijdonk
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
43M. Peersman
4D. Janse
3T. Blokzijl
16T. Mercera
6S. Resink
8T. de Jonge
14J. Schreuders
10Y. Taha
17D. van der Werff
26T. van Bergen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NAC Breda
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Groningen
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NAC Breda+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Groningen-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
NAC Breda · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Groningen · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | NAC Breda | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles | W 2–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 NAC Breda wins1 draws1 Groningen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 29 Mar 2025NAC Breda1–1Groningen
- 9 Aug 2024Groningen4–1NAC Breda
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NAC Breda | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.14 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| NAC Breda | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.14 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NAC Breda | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 8.29 | 8.57 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 1.29 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 3.72 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| NAC Breda | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 8.50 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.52
Red cards0.09league 0.22
Cards 5+35%league 38%
Fouls23.3league 22.5
Penalties0.22league 0.19
Home wins52%league 49%
NAC Breda1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Sep 24H · Fortuna Sittard1–02
GroningenNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NAC Breda7 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Groningen7 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
