NAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
NAC Breda were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. NAC Breda had 7 days of rest, Heracles 6.3 and had to travel 155 km.
Away travel155 kmRest days7 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
NAC Breda46%
Draw26%
Heracles28%
NAC Breda46%
Draw27%
Heracles28%
NAC Breda46%
Draw26%
Heracles28%
NAC Breda38%
Draw27%
Heracles35%
NAC Breda46%
Draw27%
Heracles28%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Breda)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 37
Team strength
NAC Breda
Heracles
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
9
19
AttackIn forecast
7
19
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NAC BredaHeracles
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.20
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
0.79
2.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.39
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
40%
Scored inContext
40%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
10.60
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
38%
On target shareContext
28%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
56%
Box shareContext
55%
8%
ConversionContext
4%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.00
17.60
Shots allowedContext
22.40
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.20
4.60
BlocksContext
8.60
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.60
69%
Save rateContext
56%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
320
PassesContext
322
240
Accurate passesContext
246
75%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.65
12.80
FoulsContext
12.60
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.10
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.17
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
50%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.10
ShotsContext
10.90
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
32%
On target shareContext
33%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
56%
Box shareContext
56%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.25
15.10
Shots allowedContext
19.00
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.80
3.60
BlocksContext
6.30
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
68%
Save rateContext
58%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
379
PassesContext
338
302
Accurate passesContext
265
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.90
FoulsContext
11.90
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NAC Breda
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km323 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heracles
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel155 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NAC Breda |
Heracles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 155 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 323 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
12L. Greiml
2B. Lucassen
16M. Balard
90L. Holtby
14K. Sowah
10M. Nassoh
32J. Talvitie
17S. van Hooijdonk
Heracles
Confirmed XI
1F. de Keijzer(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
4D. Mirani
2M. Benita
10T. Bruns
32S. Scheperman
70A. Hrustić
21Y. Borges Sanches
9J. Hornkamp
7B. Limbombe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NAC Breda
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heracles
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NAC Breda+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Heracles+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
NAC Breda · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Heracles · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | NAC Breda | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–3 A | L 1–4 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 NAC Breda wins1 draws1 Heracles wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 31 Jan 2025NAC Breda1–1Heracles
- 2 Nov 2024Heracles2–0NAC Breda
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NAC Breda | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 3.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| NAC Breda | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 3.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NAC Breda | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.60 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 10.60 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.80 | 3.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| NAC Breda | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 10.70 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.10 | 3.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.95league 3.44
Red cards0.24league 0.19
Cards 5+27%league 38%
Fouls21.7league 22.6
Penalties0.22league 0.15
Home wins43%league 48%
NAC Breda4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 May 25A · Fortuna Sittard0–12
- D15 Feb 25H · Feyenoord0–02
- L25 Jan 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–31
- W18 Aug 24H · Ajax2–10
Heracles2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Oct 24A · Twente0–50
- L27 Jan 24H · Ajax2–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NAC Breda5 games · scored 4 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Heracles5 games · scored 2 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
46-60
3
61-75
6
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 7 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
7
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 8 · conceded 31
1
4
0-15
3
4
16-30
8
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
