NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
NAC Breda45.6%fair odds 2.19
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.78
Heracles27.9%fair odds 3.58
Expected goals1.55 – 1.16total 2.71
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Heracles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| NAC Breda ↓ · Heracles → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NAC Breda goals, columns Heracles goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.93
- 1–09.7%10.34
- 2–19.3%10.79
- 2–08.0%12.53
- 0–07.3%13.72
- 0–17.1%14.09
- 1–26.9%14.39
- 2–25.4%18.59
- 3–14.8%20.91
- 0–24.5%22.28
Winning margin
9.5%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 10.56
14.0%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 7.16
22.2%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 4.51
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.78
16.5%
Heracles by 1
fair 6.07
7.9%
Heracles by 2
fair 12.72
3.6%
Heracles by 3+
fair 27.92
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
NAC Breda goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Heracles goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 45.6% | 45.6% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Heracles win | 27.9% | 27.9% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 50.7% | +0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.7% | 54.6% | +0.2 pp |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 1.55 | 1.54 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Heracles | 1.16 | 1.16 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- NAC Breda win45.6%2.19
- Draw26.5%3.78
- Heracles win27.9%3.58
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw72.1%1.39
- Double chance NAC Breda or Heracles73.5%1.36
- Double chance Heracles or draw54.4%1.84
- Draw no bet NAC Breda62.0%1.61
- Draw no bet Heracles38.0%2.63
Goals
- Over 0.592.7%1.08
- Over 1.575.9%1.32
- Over 2.550.9%1.97
- Over 3.528.8%3.47
- Over 4.513.9%7.22
- Under 1.524.1%4.16
- Under 2.549.1%2.04
- Under 3.571.2%1.40
Both teams to score
- Yes54.7%1.83
- No45.3%2.21
- Yes and over 2.542.1%2.37
- NAC Breda win and yes21.6%4.63
- Draw and yes19.2%5.21
- Heracles win and yes13.9%7.17
Team goals
- NAC Breda over 0.578.7%1.27
- NAC Breda over 1.545.8%2.18
- NAC Breda over 2.520.3%4.92
- Heracles over 0.568.7%1.46
- Heracles over 1.532.3%3.09
- Heracles over 2.511.2%8.91
- NAC Breda clean sheet31.3%3.19
- Heracles clean sheet21.3%4.70
- NAC Breda win to nil24.0%4.16
- Heracles win to nil14.0%7.16
Handicap
- NAC Breda −1.523.4%4.27
- NAC Breda −2.59.5%10.56
- Heracles +1.576.6%1.31
- Heracles +2.590.5%1.10
- Heracles −1.511.4%8.74
- NAC Breda +1.588.6%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored48
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result44.4%
1X2 Brier0.538
Over 2.5 called right64.6%
BTTS called right54.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.2% | 20.0% |
| 40–50% | 14 | 44.3% | 35.7% |
| 50–60% | 15 | 56.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 63.2% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 75.6% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 26 of 48 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5235 | 0.4804 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.9% | 48.3% |
| Favourite won | 53.8% | 65.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 26 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 48 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.