NAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 16). PSV Eindhoven usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. NAC Breda had 13.9 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 13 and had to travel 51 km.
Away travel51 kmRest days13.9 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
NAC Breda9%
Draw16%
PSV Eindhoven75%
NAC Breda10%
Draw18%
PSV Eindhoven73%
NAC Breda9%
Draw16%
PSV Eindhoven75%
NAC Breda6%
Draw13%
PSV Eindhoven81%
NAC Breda10%
Draw18%
PSV Eindhoven73%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Breda)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 39
Team strength
NAC Breda
PSV Eindhoven
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
79
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
19
AttackIn forecast
60
19
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NAC BredaPSV Eindhoven
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.33
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
2.08
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+1.25
75%
Scored inContext
92%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
11.83
ShotsContext
18.50
4.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.33
34%
On target shareContext
40%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
12.25
62%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.89
13.42
Shots allowedContext
11.75
5.42
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.55
3.17
BlocksContext
3.58
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
68%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
383
PassesContext
544
302
Accurate passesContext
471
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.11
11.92
FoulsContext
12.00
12.58
Fouls sufferedContext
8.33
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+1.17
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.10
ShotsContext
15.30
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
35%
On target shareContext
38%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
67%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
20%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.10
Shots allowedContext
10.90
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
2.70
BlocksContext
3.10
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
68%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
396
PassesContext
543
312
Accurate passesContext
475
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.20
FoulsContext
11.50
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.10
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NAC Breda
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km206 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel51 km283 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NAC Breda |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 13Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 51 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 206 km | 283 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
20F. Oldrup Jensen
25C. Valerius
2B. Lucassen
14K. Sowah
16M. Balard
10M. Nassoh
17S. van Hooijdonk
7C. Brym
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
2A. Salah-Eddine
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
22J. Schouten
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
17Mauro Júnior
5I. Perišić
34I. Saibari
27D. Man
20G. Til
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NAC Breda
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.06 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NAC Breda+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- PSV Eindhoven-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
NAC Breda · Home
1.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.17
PSV Eindhoven · Away
3.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | NAC Breda | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| PEC Zwolle | D 2–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| Groningen | L 1–2 H | W 4–2 H |
| Ajax | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Twente | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 H | W 5–1 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–3 A | W 5–3 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 H | W 5–2 H |
| Feyenoord | L 0–2 A | W 3–2 A |
| Points | 8 of 27 · 0.89 per game | 25 of 27 · 2.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 NAC Breda wins0 draws2 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 25 Jan 2025PSV Eindhoven3–2NAC Breda
- 9 Nov 2024NAC Breda0–3PSV Eindhoven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NAC Breda | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 3.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.75 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 83% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 75% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 8% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| NAC Breda | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 3.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 4.80 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 90% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NAC Breda | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.42 | 6.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.08 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 10.50 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 6/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 3/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 3/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 1.58 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 2.91 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 7/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 6/12 | 17% 2/12 | |
| NAC Breda | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.60 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 2.90 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.46league 3.33
Red cards0.10league 0.22
Cards 5+23%league 32%
Fouls19.2league 22.1
Penalties0.21league 0.30
Home wins56%league 50%
NAC Breda3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.3.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds2
- L27 Sep 25A · Ajax1–24
- L4 May 25H · PEC Zwolle1–33
- L9 Aug 24A · Groningen1–44
PSV Eindhoven2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Jan 24H · Excelsior3–10
- W27 Sep 23H · GO Ahead Eagles3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NAC Breda12 games · scored 15 · conceded 21
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
5
46-60
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
PSV Eindhoven12 games · scored 40 · conceded 17
6
1
0-15
8
1
16-30
6
4
31-45
8
2
46-60
6
6
61-75
6
3
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 31 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
7
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
9
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
