Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Apr 5 · 15:45 Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda
NAC Breda 17th · 23 pts · 28 played
First leg0–1 0–0Full time
Sparta Rotterdam 10th · 41 pts · 28 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
NAC Breda36.6%fair odds 2.74
Draw27.5%fair odds 3.64
Sparta Rotterdam35.9%fair odds 2.78
Expected goals1.32 – 1.31total 2.63
Likeliest score1–113.1%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

NAC Breda

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Sparta Rotterdam

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

NAC Breda ↓ · Sparta Rotterdam →0123456+
07.88.76.22.70.90.20.1
18.813.18.23.61.20.30.1
26.38.25.42.40.80.20.1
32.83.62.41.00.30.10.0
40.91.20.80.30.10.00.0
50.20.30.20.10.00.00.0
6+0.10.10.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NAC Breda goals, columns Sparta Rotterdam goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–113.1%7.63
  • 1–08.8%11.31
  • 0–18.7%11.44
  • 2–18.2%12.13
  • 1–28.2%12.26
  • 0–07.8%12.76
  • 2–06.3%15.90
  • 0–26.2%16.23
  • 2–25.4%18.52
  • 3–13.6%27.49

Winning margin

5.9% NAC Breda by 3+ fair 16.93
10.8% NAC Breda by 2 fair 9.25
19.8% NAC Breda by 1 fair 5.04
27.5% Draw fair 3.64
19.6% Sparta Rotterdam by 1 fair 5.09
10.6% Sparta Rotterdam by 2 fair 9.44
5.7% Sparta Rotterdam by 3+ fair 17.53

Goal distribution

Total goals

8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+

NAC Breda goals

27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+

Sparta Rotterdam goals

27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
NAC Breda win 36.6% 36.3% +0.3 pp
Draw 27.5% 28.1% -0.6 pp
Sparta Rotterdam win 35.9% 35.7% +0.3 pp
Over 2.5 49.0% 46.8% +2.2 pp
Both teams score 54.3% 52.5% +1.7 pp
Expected goals NAC Breda 1.32 1.28 +0.04
Expected goals Sparta Rotterdam 1.31 1.27 +0.04

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • NAC Breda win36.6%2.74
  • Draw27.5%3.64
  • Sparta Rotterdam win35.9%2.78
  • Double chance NAC Breda or draw64.1%1.56
  • Double chance NAC Breda or Sparta Rotterdam72.5%1.38
  • Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw63.4%1.58
  • Draw no bet NAC Breda50.4%1.98
  • Draw no bet Sparta Rotterdam49.6%2.02

Goals

  • Over 0.592.2%1.09
  • Over 1.574.6%1.34
  • Over 2.549.0%2.04
  • Over 3.527.2%3.68
  • Over 4.512.8%7.84
  • Under 1.525.4%3.93
  • Under 2.551.0%1.96
  • Under 3.572.8%1.37

Both teams to score

  • Yes54.3%1.84
  • No45.7%2.19
  • Yes and over 2.541.2%2.43
  • NAC Breda win and yes17.4%5.74
  • Draw and yes19.7%5.08
  • Sparta Rotterdam win and yes17.2%5.83

Team goals

  • NAC Breda over 0.573.4%1.36
  • NAC Breda over 1.538.2%2.62
  • NAC Breda over 2.514.8%6.74
  • Sparta Rotterdam over 0.573.0%1.37
  • Sparta Rotterdam over 1.537.7%2.65
  • Sparta Rotterdam over 2.514.5%6.88
  • NAC Breda clean sheet27.0%3.71
  • Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet26.6%3.76
  • NAC Breda win to nil19.1%5.23
  • Sparta Rotterdam win to nil18.8%5.33

Handicap

  • NAC Breda −1.516.7%5.98
  • NAC Breda −2.55.9%16.93
  • Sparta Rotterdam +1.583.3%1.20
  • Sparta Rotterdam +2.594.1%1.06
  • Sparta Rotterdam −1.516.3%6.14
  • NAC Breda +1.583.7%1.19

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored260 Favourite won51.5% Avg chance given to result41.0% 1X2 Brier0.590 Over 2.5 called right61.9% BTTS called right62.3%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%4038.0%35.0%
40–50%9744.9%47.4%
50–60%6255.0%45.2%
60–70%3464.5%67.6%
70–80%2074.3%85.0%
80%+784.7%85.7%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 211 of 260 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.59140.5841
Avg chance given to result40.8%42.2%
Favourite won50.7%53.1%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 211 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 260 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.