NAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
NAC Breda
17th · 23 pts · 28 played
WLDLL
First leg0–1
0–0Full time
Sparta Rotterdam
10th · 41 pts · 28 played
LLDLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Sparta Rotterdam were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for NAC Breda. NAC Breda had 14.8 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 14.9 and had to travel 43 km.
Away travel43 kmRest days14.8 · 14.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
NAC Breda37%
Draw28%
Sparta Rotterdam36%
NAC Breda33%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam40%
NAC Breda37%
Draw28%
Sparta Rotterdam35%
NAC Breda30%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam43%
NAC Breda36%
Draw28%
Sparta Rotterdam36%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Breda)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.07
- Matches 28
Team strength
NAC BredaSparta Rotterdam
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
19
AttackIn forecast
32
19
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NAC BredaSparta Rotterdam
1.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.79
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
61%
Scored inContext
79%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
13.25
ShotsContext
12.71
4.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.57
31%
On target shareContext
36%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.18
60%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.95
OffsidesContext
1.76
12.39
Shots allowedContext
15.57
5.07
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.12
BlocksContext
4.43
3.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.22
69%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
389
PassesContext
391
305
Accurate passesContext
313
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.93
FoulsContext
9.36
12.54
Fouls sufferedContext
10.36
1.68
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.10
ShotsContext
12.10
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
31%
On target shareContext
37%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
57%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.20
Shots allowedContext
14.40
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.78
BlocksContext
4.70
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
64%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
361
PassesContext
412
271
Accurate passesContext
330
75%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.40
FoulsContext
11.50
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NAC Breda
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel43 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NAC Breda |
Sparta Rotterdam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 14.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 43 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
20F. Oldrup Jensen
3D. Odoi
8C. Leemans
16M. Balard
11R. Paula
10M. Nassoh
7C. Brym
19A. Salama
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5T. Quintero
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2Lushendry Edward Martes
8J. Kitolano
6J. Baas
11S. Mito
10Vito van Crooij
7M. van Bergen
9T. Lauritsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NAC Breda
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NAC Breda-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
NAC Breda · Home
1.14points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-6
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.50
Sparta Rotterdam · Away
1.36points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-7
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | NAC Breda | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–6 AW 1–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Feyenoord | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A | W 4–3 AL 0–4 H |
| Telstar | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| FC Volendam | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Heracles | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Excelsior | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Twente | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | L 1–5 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–6 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 3–4 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Groningen | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H | W 2–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Utrecht | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Heerenveen | D 3–3 A | L 1–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Ajax | L 1–2 A | L 0–4 AD 3–3 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 23 of 81 · 0.85 per game | 38 of 81 · 1.41 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 NAC Breda wins1 draws1 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.67
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 7 Dec 2025Sparta Rotterdam1–0NAC Breda
- 7 Mar 2025NAC Breda1–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 7 Dec 2024Sparta Rotterdam0–2NAC Breda
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NAC Breda | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.04 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.79 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 2.82 | 2.93 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 21% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| NAC Breda | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.10 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NAC Breda | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.21 | 4.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.21 | 6.27 | |
| Match total | 9.42 | 11.23 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 17/28 | 88% 23/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 13/28 | 69% 18/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 12/28 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 1.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.96 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 3.85 | 3.89 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 15/28 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 12/28 | 36% 10/28 | |
| NAC Breda | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 10.26 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.10 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.93league 3.18
Red cards0.21league 0.17
Cards 5+21%league 27%
Fouls22.3league 21.3
Penalties0.07league 0.23
Home wins39%league 45%
NAC Breda1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L31 Aug 24A · Heerenveen0–41
Sparta Rotterdam5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Dec 25H · Heerenveen0–31
- W19 Oct 25A · Groningen2–02
- W23 Aug 25A · GO Ahead Eagles3–02
- W6 Apr 25H · NEC Nijmegen2–00
- D28 Sep 24H · Fortuna Sittard1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NAC Breda28 games · scored 29 · conceded 50
1
6
0-15
4
9
16-30
8
10
31-45
6
7
46-60
2
5
61-75
8
13
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam28 games · scored 35 · conceded 47
4
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
5
9
31-45
4
7
46-60
6
13
61-75
12
12
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 13 · conceded 24
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
5
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
6
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
