NAC Breda vs Twente – 30 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Fri, Jan 30 · 19:00 Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

NAC Breda 17th · 15 pts · 20 played DLDLD

First leg2–2 2–2Full time

Twente 8th · 30 pts · 20 played WDDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Twente were slight favourites.

Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for NAC Breda. NAC Breda had 6 days of rest, Twente 6 and had to travel 162 km.

Away travel162 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2

NAC Breda31%

Draw26%

Twente43%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.54

NAC Breda26%

Draw26%

Twente48%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.59

NAC Breda31%

Draw26%

Twente43%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.54

NAC Breda24%

Draw25%

Twente51%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.73

NAC Breda31%

Draw27%

Twente42%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.45

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Breda)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 51

Team strength

NAC Breda

Twente

14 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

14 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

19 AttackIn forecast 41

19 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NAC Breda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Twente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NAC Breda

Twente

1.05 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.45

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.88

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.43

60% Scored inContext 75%

10% Clean sheetsContext 25%

12.50 ShotsContext 18.05

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

30% On target shareContext 33%

8.11 Shots in the boxContext 11.75

62% Box shareContext 65%

8% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.60

12.55 Shots allowedContext 9.40

5.15 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.32

2.74 BlocksContext 3.11

3.55 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.05

69% Save rateContext 62%

48% PossessionIn forecast 56%

392 PassesContext 469

311 Accurate passesContext 383

79% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.91

11.35 FoulsContext 10.85

12.95 Fouls sufferedContext 9.95

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.15 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.96

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.96

50% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.80 ShotsContext 18.70

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

25% On target shareContext 31%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.30

59% Box shareContext 71%

6% ConversionContext 5%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.75

10.70 Shots allowedContext 8.80

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

2.00 BlocksContext 2.78

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.11

71% Save rateContext 70%

49% PossessionIn forecast 56%

401 PassesContext 488

321 Accurate passesContext 405

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.97

10.30 FoulsContext 10.00

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NAC Breda

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km102 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Twente

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel162 km44 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	NAC Breda	Twente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Jan	6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	162 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	102 km	44 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NAC Breda Confirmed XI

5-3-2

99D. Bielica(G)

4B. Kemper 22R. Hillen 12L. Greiml 3D. Odoi 25C. Valerius

14K. Sowah 90L. Holtby 16M. Balard

9M. Soumano 7C. Brym

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Twente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Unnerstall(G)

39M. Rots 43Ruud Nijstad 23S. Lemkin 28B. van Rooij

20T. van den Belt 6R. Zerrouki

27S. Ørjasæter 32A. Verschueren 11D. Rots

9R. van Wolfswinkel

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

NAC Breda Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Twente Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

NAC Breda-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Twente+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

NAC Breda · Home 1.10points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-5
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.40

Twente · Away 1.40points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 3-5-2
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.10

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	NAC Breda	Twente
PSV Eindhoven	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H	L 0–2 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 3–4 HL 0–3 A	D 3–3 A
Groningen	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Telstar	L 0–1 H	D 0–0 H
Utrecht	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 A	W 5–1 A
Excelsior	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
FC Volendam	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 H
Heerenveen	D 3–3 A	W 2–1 A
PEC Zwolle	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
Ajax	L 1–2 A	L 2–3 H
Heracles	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–1 H	W 3–2 H
Feyenoord	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 A
Points	14 of 57 · 0.74 per game	29 of 57 · 1.53 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 NAC Breda wins1 draws1 Twente wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

13 Sep 2025Twente2–2NAC Breda
19 Jan 2025NAC Breda2–1Twente
29 Sep 2024Twente1–0NAC Breda

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	NAC Breda	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.05	1.45
Conceded per game	1.60	1.10
Match goals	2.65	2.55	2.80
Over 1.5	65%	75%
Over 2.5	55%	35%	53%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	55%	60%	57%
Clean sheets	10%	25%
Failed to score	40%	25%
Games	20	20

	NAC Breda	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.00
Conceded per game	1.30	0.50
Match goals	2.10	1.50	2.80
Over 1.5	40%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	0%	53%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	NAC Breda	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	5.20
Corners conceded	4.00	3.85
Match total	9.10	9.05	10.25
Over 8.5	55% 11/20	40% 8/20
Over 9.5	40% 8/20	30% 6/20
Over 10.5	40% 8/20	30% 6/20
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.90
Opponent cards	2.10	2.10
Match total	4.10	4.00	3.59
Over 3.5	55% 11/20	45% 9/20
Over 4.5	45% 9/20	40% 8/20

	NAC Breda	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	5.80
Corners conceded	4.00	4.50
Match total	9.70	10.30	10.25
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	2.10
Match total	4.30	4.30	3.59
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 51 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.37league 3.38

Red cards0.16league 0.20

Cards 5+29%league 31%

Fouls22.2league 21.7

Penalties0.25league 0.28

Home wins51%league 44%

NAC Breda2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.5 Pens for · against1 · 0

D12 Apr 25H · GO Ahead Eagles1–12
W26 Oct 24H · Waalwijk4–12

Twente7 with this referee

Record2-2-3 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 1

W14 Dec 25H · GO Ahead Eagles2–00
D2 Nov 25A · Groningen1–14
L10 Aug 25A · PEC Zwolle0–11
W4 May 25A · Sparta Rotterdam2–00
L21 Dec 24A · AZ Alkmaar0–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.