Primeira Liga Gameweek 26 Sun, Mar 15 2026 · 15:30 Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
Nacional
0–1 Full time · HT 0–1 xG 0.75 – 1.00
Estoril
  • 9’ F. Bacher
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Bacher goal decides it for Estoril

Nacional entered as narrow favourites, but Estoril won 1–0 through a Bacher goal. The chances were even, with xG of 0.75 and 1.00. On the chances created, Nacional deserved more: 1.1 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Nacional38%
Draw28%
Estoril ✓34%

Model vs reality

Nacional goals
0
Model 1.30 · xG 0.75
Estoril goals
1
Model 1.22 · xG 1.00
Total goals
1
Model 2.52 · xG 1.75
Score 0–1
9%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 46%
Both scored
No
Model 52%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchA. TsounguiEstoril
7.9
  • RefereeMiguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca
  • VenueEstádio da Madeira
  • Table before kick-offNacional 15th · Estoril 8th

Timeline

  1. F. Bacher 0–1Assist João Carvalho
    9’
  2. João CarvalhoYellow card
    16’
  3. Half time · 0–1
  4. ⇄ C. LabidiFor Joel Silva
    46’
  5. ⇄ XekaFor Jandro Orellana
    59’
  6. ⇄ R. GuitaneFor A. Marqués
    59’
  7. ⇄ André LacximicantFor Y. Begraoui
    59’
  8. ⇄ Lucas JoãoFor Miguel Baeza
    63’
  9. ⇄ Pablo RuanFor Gabriel Veron
    63’
  10. J. RamírezYellow card · misses next match
    76’
  11. ⇄ Pedro AmaralFor Pedro Carvalho
    78’
  12. ⇄ PizziFor João Carvalho
    78’
  13. ⇄ Daniel JúniorFor Matheus Dias
    79’
  14. ⇄ André SousaFor Paulinho Bóia
    79’
  15. Lucas JoãoYellow card
    80’
  16. Zé VitorYellow card
    84’
  17. Joel RoblesYellow card
    88’
  18. C. LabidiYellow card · misses next match
    90’
  19. Ricard SánchezYellow card
    90+3’
  20. Pablo RuanYellow card
    90+3’
  21. Full time · 0–1

Team stats

Nacional14 shots · 6 in box, 8 outside
Estoril10 shots · 7 in box, 3 outside
NacionalEstoril
56% Possession 44%
0.75 Expected goals (xG) 1.00
1.13 Expected points (xPts) 1.54
14 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 2
8 Shots off target 5
2 Blocked shots 3
6 Shots inside the box 7
8 Shots outside the box 3
381 Passes 313
75% Pass accuracy 76%
5 Corners 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
14 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 1
5 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
6.82 Team rating 7.06

Line-ups

Nacional 4-3-3

15.6 Kaique(G)
247.5 Lenny Vallier 387.2 Zé Vitor 347.2 Léo Santos 167.2 Alan Nuñez
266.5 Joel Silva ↓46’ 66.9 Matheus Dias ↓79’ 86.6 Miguel Baeza ↓63’
117.2 Paulinho Bóia ↓79’ 96.5 J. Ramírez 277.0 Gabriel Veron ↓63’
  • 1Kaique (G)5.6
  • 24Lenny Vallier7.5
  • 38Zé Vitor7.2
  • 34Léo Santos7.2
  • 16Alan Nuñez7.2
  • 26Joel Silva↓46’6.5
  • 6Matheus Dias↓79’6.9
  • 8Miguel Baeza↓63’6.6
  • 11Paulinho Bóia↓79’7.2
  • 9J. Ramírez6.5
  • 27Gabriel Veron↓63’7.0

Substitutes used

  • 15C. Labidi↑46’6.3
  • 19Lucas João↑63’6.5
  • 10Daniel Júnior↑79’6.3
  • 18André Sousa↑79’6.7
  • 99Pablo Ruan↑63’6.7

Unused: Kevyn, Francisco Gonçalves, Deivison, Jota Garcês

Estoril 4-3-3

17.5 Joel Robles(G)
26.9 Ricard Sánchez 257.7 F. Bacher 47.7 Ferro 226.7 Pedro Carvalho ↓78’
106.9 J. Holsgrove 57.9★ A. Tsoungui 66.7 Jandro Orellana ↓59’
96.3 A. Marqués ↓59’ 146.3 Y. Begraoui ↓59’ 127.2 João Carvalho A↓78’
  • 1Joel Robles (G)7.5
  • 2Ricard Sánchez6.9
  • 25F. Bacher7.7
  • 4Ferro7.7
  • 22Pedro Carvalho↓78’6.7
  • 10J. Holsgrove6.9
  • 5A. Tsoungui ★7.9
  • 6Jandro Orellana↓59’6.7
  • 9A. Marqués↓59’6.3
  • 14Y. Begraoui↓59’6.3
  • 12João CarvalhoA↓78’7.2

Substitutes used

  • 8Xeka↑59’6.7
  • 19André Lacximicant↑59’6.2
  • 99R. Guitane↑59’6.5
  • 24Pedro Amaral↑78’6.3
  • 21Pizzi↑78’6.2

Unused: M. Turk, Gonçalo Costa, N. Lominadze, Peixinho

Player stats

Top rated
A. TsounguiEstoril7.9
2nd
F. BacherEstoril7.7
3rd
FerroEstoril7.7

Nacional

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
Kaique G 90 0 0 1 sv 0 54% 28 0 0 0/0 0/0 5.6
Lenny Vallier D 90 0 0 0 (0) 3 86% 35 1 0 2/2 0/0 7.5
Zé Vitor D 90 0 0 3 (1) 0 76% 54 2 2 0/0 1/2 7.2
Léo Santos D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 82% 49 3 1 0/0 0/1 7.2
Alan Nuñez D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 72% 32 1 2 1/1 1/1 7.2
Joel Silva M 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 22 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.5
Matheus Dias M 79 0 0 0 (0) 1 82% 39 2 3 0/0 2/0 6.9
Miguel Baeza M 63 0 0 1 (1) 1 65% 23 2 0 1/1 0/0 6.6
Paulinho Bóia F 79 0 0 4 (1) 2 67% 18 1 1 1/6 2/4 7.2
J. Ramírez F 90 0 0 4 (1) 2 76% 21 0 1 1/1 5/1 6.5
Gabriel Veron F 63 0 0 0 (0) 0 60% 20 1 0 1/2 0/1 7.0
C. Labidi M 44 0 0 0 (0) 1 82% 17 2 1 0/0 1/0 6.3
Lucas João F 27 0 0 0 (0) 1 67% 6 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.5
Daniel Júnior F 11 0 0 0 (0) 0 60% 5 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.3
André Sousa M 11 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 6 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
Pablo Ruan M 27 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 6 1 0 0/0 0/1 6.7

Estoril

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
Joel Robles G 90 0 0 4 sv 0 35% 34 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.5
Ricard Sánchez D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 88% 32 0 2 2/3 1/1 6.9
F. Bacher D 90 1 0 2 (1) 0 84% 31 1 1 0/0 0/0 7.7
Ferro D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 79% 33 3 1 0/0 2/1 7.7
Pedro Carvalho D 78 0 0 0 (0) 2 72% 25 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.7
J. Holsgrove M 90 0 0 1 (1) 1 91% 35 2 0 1/2 1/2 6.9
A. Tsoungui D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 85% 27 1 0 2/2 0/4 7.9
Jandro Orellana M 59 0 0 0 (0) 0 82% 17 2 1 0/0 1/1 6.7
A. Marqués F 59 0 0 1 (0) 1 65% 20 0 1 0/1 2/1 6.3
Y. Begraoui F 59 0 0 1 (0) 0 58% 12 1 0 0/1 0/0 6.3
João Carvalho M 78 0 1 1 (0) 1 91% 32 1 1 3/7 1/3 7.2
Xeka M 31 0 0 0 (0) 0 60% 10 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.7
André Lacximicant F 31 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 1 0 0 0/0 3/1 6.2
R. Guitane M 31 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 2 0 0 2/4 0/0 6.5
Pedro Amaral D 12 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 2 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
Pizzi M 12 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.