Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Estoril were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nacional. Nacional had 8 days of rest, Estoril 7.8 and had to travel 954 km.
Away travel954 kmRest days8 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nacional38%
Draw28%
Estoril34%
Nacional34%
Draw27%
Estoril38%
Nacional38%
Draw28%
Estoril34%
Nacional31%
Draw28%
Estoril41%
Nacional39%
Draw27%
Estoril34%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 8
Team strength
Nacional
Estoril
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
15
AttackIn forecast
21
13
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalEstoril
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.84
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
72%
Scored inContext
68%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
12.12
ShotsContext
11.60
4.04
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
33%
On target shareContext
36%
7.87
Shots in the boxContext
7.48
61%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.18
OffsidesContext
1.52
14.00
Shots allowedContext
11.56
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.92
BlocksContext
2.86
3.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.74
68%
Save rateContext
62%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
316
PassesContext
430
241
Accurate passesContext
353
76%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.82
14.28
FoulsContext
12.20
11.48
Fouls sufferedContext
11.96
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.52
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.91
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.20
ShotsContext
10.80
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
33%
On target shareContext
41%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
64%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
21%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.56
12.60
Shots allowedContext
11.40
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.80
BlocksContext
3.63
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
73%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
341
PassesContext
483
268
Accurate passesContext
413
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.60
FoulsContext
11.40
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,460 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Estoril
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel954 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Estoril |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 954 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,460 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
24Lenny Vallier
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
16Alan Nuñez
26Joel Silva
6Matheus Dias
8Miguel Baeza
11Paulinho Bóia
9J. Ramírez
27Gabriel Veron
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
2Ricard Sánchez
25F. Bacher
4Ferro
22Pedro Carvalho
10J. Holsgrove
5A. Tsoungui
6Jandro Orellana
9A. Marqués
14Y. Begraoui
12João Carvalho
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estoril+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
0.92points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-7
- Scored
- 1.42
- Conceded
- 1.67
Estoril · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-7
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| SC Braga | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Arouca | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H | W 4–3 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Casa Pia | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Sporting CP | L 1–2 AL 1–4 H | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A | W 4–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | W 3–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Santa Clara | D 3–3 H | W 4–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Guimaraes | L 1–2 A | W 4–2 HL 2–3 A |
| AVS | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Tondela | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| Benfica | L 1–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Estrela | D 1–1 A | W 5–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 21 of 72 · 0.88 per game | 33 of 72 · 1.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Nacional wins2 draws1 Estoril wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 26 Oct 2025Estoril1–1Nacional
- 15 Feb 2025Nacional2–2Estoril
- 15 Sep 2024Estoril1–0Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 1.84 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 3.52 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 68% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 56% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 32% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Nacional | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 4.00 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 4.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.79 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 10.04 | 9.26 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 16/24 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 15/24 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 11/24 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.84 | 2.52 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.52 | 2.12 | |
| Match total | 5.36 | 4.64 | 5.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 18/25 | 84% 21/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 68% 17/25 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Nacional | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 8.60 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.00 | 5.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca Portugal · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.88league 4.85
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+75%league 59%
Fouls25.9league 27.0
Penalties0.38league 0.45
Home wins38%league 40%
Nacional2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D26 Oct 25A · Estoril1–13
- W28 Sep 25A · SC Braga1–02
Estoril2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D26 Oct 25H · Nacional1–13
- D11 May 25A · Moreirense2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nacional25 games · scored 29 · conceded 37
2
5
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
7
31-45
6
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
7
11
76-90
Estoril25 games · scored 46 · conceded 42
4
9
0-15
7
5
16-30
11
7
31-45
10
5
46-60
8
8
61-75
6
8
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 23 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
