Nacional vs Estoril – 16 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 16 · 15:30 Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira

Nacional 11th · 1 pts · 1 played D

2–0Full time

Estoril 12th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Estoril were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 23). Nacional had 5.8 days of rest, Estoril 8.8 and had to travel 954 km.

Away travel954 kmRest days5.8 · 8.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Nacional39%

Draw26%

Estoril35%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.31

Nacional39%

Draw26%

Estoril35%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.29

Nacional39%

Draw26%

Estoril35%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.31

Nacional32%

Draw26%

Estoril42%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.47

Nacional40%

Draw26%

Estoril35%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.30

Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ilha da Madeira)

No weather data yet

RefereeB. J. Costa

Team strength

Nacional

Estoril

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

17 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

15 AttackIn forecast 21

13 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nacional

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nacional

Estoril

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.78 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

60% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.50 ShotsContext 10.10

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

38% On target shareContext 30%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.67

51% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 9%

1.43 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.80 Shots allowedContext 11.60

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

5.00 BlocksContext 2.56

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

80% Save rateContext 61%

49% PossessionIn forecast 52%

348 PassesContext 440

274 Accurate passesContext 363

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.73

14.20 FoulsContext 13.50

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

3.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nacional D

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,927 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 45 · 1 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected

D10 AugA · Santa Clara2–21.0 xPts

Estoril D

Rest8.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel954 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 44 · 1 pts vs 1.7 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected

D7 AugH · Famalicao1–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nacional	Estoril
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 10 Aug	8.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 7 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	954 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,927 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nacional Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Bellucci(G)

38Zé Vitor 6Matheus Dias 34Léo Santos

7M. Jensen 22Filipe Soares 28Liziero 52Wesley Gasolina

10Daniel Júnior 8Miguel Baeza

99Pablo Ruan

Estoril Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Joel Robles(G)

3Fernando Medrano 15Isma Sierra 4Ferro 2Ricard Sánchez

5A. Tsoungui 8Xeka

7André Lacximicant 12João Carvalho 99R. Guitane

14Y. Begraoui

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nacional Absences are shown before kick-off

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nacional+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estoril+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Nacional · Home No home games yet this season.

Estoril · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Nacional wins2 draws2 Estoril wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.25 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

15 Mar 2026Nacional0–1Estoril
26 Oct 2025Estoril1–1Nacional
15 Feb 2025Nacional2–2Estoril
15 Sep 2024Estoril1–0Nacional

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nacional	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	4.00	2.00	2.72
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	51%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Nacional	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.90
Conceded per game	1.00	1.60
Match goals	2.00	2.50	2.72
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	20%	40%	51%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	20%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nacional	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	7.00
Corners conceded	4.00	6.00
Match total	8.00	13.00	9.17
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	4.00	3.00	4.67
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Nacional	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	4.44
Corners conceded	6.40	5.33
Match total	11.10	9.77	9.17
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	3.20	2.10
Opponent cards	2.10	2.30
Match total	5.30	4.40	4.67
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.