Nacional vs Estrela – 4 Apr 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 28 Sat, Apr 4 · 15:30 Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira

Nacional 16th · 22 pts · 27 played LLDLL

2–0Full time

Estrela 14th · 28 pts · 27 played LDDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nacional were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Estrela. Nacional had 14 days of rest, Estrela 14.8 and had to travel 969 km.

Away travel969 kmRest days14 · 14.8Matches / 14d1 · 0

Nacional41%

Draw28%

Estrela31%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.17

Nacional45%

Draw27%

Estrela28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Nacional41%

Draw28%

Estrela31%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.17

Nacional34%

Draw28%

Estrela38%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.31

Nacional42%

Draw27%

Estrela31%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.24

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ilha da Madeira)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves

Cards per match 5.9
Penalties per match 0.59
Matches 17

Team strength

Nacional

Estrela

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

17 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

15 AttackIn forecast 24

13 DefenceIn forecast 27

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nacional

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nacional

Estrela

1.07 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.22

1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.54

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

67% Scored inContext 59%

15% Clean sheetsContext 26%

12.04 ShotsContext 10.89

4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.81

34% On target shareContext 34%

7.56 Shots in the boxContext 5.67

59% Box shareContext 50%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.16 OffsidesContext 2.17

13.85 Shots allowedContext 13.11

4.48 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.63

3.89 BlocksContext 3.96

3.12 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.24

68% Save rateContext 67%

45% PossessionIn forecast 49%

319 PassesContext 354

245 Accurate passesContext 287

77% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.77

14.26 FoulsContext 14.11

11.41 Fouls sufferedContext 14.93

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.48

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

0.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

50% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.70 ShotsContext 10.30

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

35% On target shareContext 36%

7.40 Shots in the boxContext 5.30

58% Box shareContext 50%

6% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.20

12.00 Shots allowedContext 13.40

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.90 BlocksContext 4.44

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

75% Save rateContext 62%

48% PossessionIn forecast 49%

349 PassesContext 369

275 Accurate passesContext 304

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.73

14.30 FoulsContext 14.90

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nacional

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,444 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Estrela

Rest14.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel969 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nacional	Estrela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar	14.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	969 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,444 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nacional Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Kaique(G)

5José Gomes 38Zé Vitor 34Léo Santos 16Alan Nuñez

28Liziero 15C. Labidi 8Miguel Baeza

11Paulinho Bóia 9J. Ramírez 27Gabriel Veron

Estrela Confirmed XI

4-3-3

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

24B. Langa 14Bernardo Schappo 30Luan Patrick 21M. Scholze

63A. Sola 6Kevin Höög Jansson 39G. Doue

10I. Stoica 9Rodrigo Pinho 99A. Marcus

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nacional Absences are shown before kick-off

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nacional+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estrela+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Nacional · Home 0.85points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-8
Scored: 1.31
Conceded: 1.62

Estrela · Away 0.85points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-6
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.85

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Nacional	Estrela
Famalicao	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	W 3–2 A
Estoril	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A	L 0–5 HD 1–1 A
Moreirense	D 1–1 AW 3–2 H	D 0–0 H
SC Braga	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	D 3–3 H
Arouca	L 0–3 AL 1–2 H	W 3–1 H
FC Porto	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A	L 1–3 A
Casa Pia	D 0–0 HW 2–0 A	W 4–0 HW 5–3 A
Sporting CP	L 1–2 AL 1–4 H	L 0–4 A
Rio Ave	W 4–0 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
GIL Vicente	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H	D 2–2 HL 0–2 A
Santa Clara	D 3–3 H	W 1–0 HD 0–0 A
Guimaraes	L 1–2 A	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H
AVS	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
Tondela	W 3–1 H	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
Alverca	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
Benfica	L 1–2 H	L 0–4 AL 0–1 H
Points	21 of 78 · 0.81 per game	27 of 78 · 1.04 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Nacional wins1 draws2 Estrela wins

Goals per game0.33 – 1.33 Over 2.50% Both scored33% Clean sheets0% · 67%

9 Nov 2025Estrela1–1Nacional
6 Apr 2025Nacional0–1Estrela
10 Nov 2024Estrela2–0Nacional

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nacional	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.07	1.22
Conceded per game	1.44	1.67
Match goals	2.52	2.89	2.56
Over 1.5	70%	78%
Over 2.5	48%	56%	47%
Over 3.5	22%	41%
Both teams scored	56%	48%	52%
Clean sheets	15%	26%
Failed to score	33%	41%
Games	27	27

	Nacional	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.00
Conceded per game	1.30	1.80
Match goals	2.10	2.80	2.56
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	47%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nacional	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	4.35	3.96
Corners conceded	5.65	5.26
Match total	10.00	9.22	9.20
Over 8.5	65% 17/26	48% 11/23
Over 9.5	62% 16/26	39% 9/23
Over 10.5	46% 12/26	35% 8/23
Cards
Cards	2.93	2.63
Opponent cards	2.56	2.67
Match total	5.49	5.30	5.12
Over 3.5	74% 20/27	74% 20/27
Over 4.5	70% 19/27	70% 19/27

	Nacional	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	5.22	3.67
Corners conceded	4.78	6.00
Match total	10.00	9.67	9.20
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.50
Opponent cards	2.10	2.40
Match total	5.00	4.90	5.12
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 17 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.12league 4.80

Red cards0.82league 0.26

Cards 5+65%league 57%

Fouls25.6league 27.0

Penalties0.59league 0.44

Home wins24%league 41%

Nacional2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

D21 Dec 25A · AVS2–20
L20 Sep 25H · Arouca1–23

Estrela1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 6.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W7 Dec 25H · Arouca3–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.