Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 20). Absences weigh more on Sporting CP. Nacional had 6.1 days of rest, Sporting CP 5.9 and had to travel 972 km.
Away travel972 kmRest days6.1 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nacional12%
Draw20%
Sporting CP68%
Nacional12%
Draw19%
Sporting CP69%
Nacional11%
Draw19%
Sporting CP69%
Nacional9%
Draw17%
Sporting CP75%
Nacional12%
Draw19%
Sporting CP68%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalBruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa
- Cards per match 6.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Nacional
Sporting CP
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
15
AttackIn forecast
75
13
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalSporting CP
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
4.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
2.91
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.35
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+1.09
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
13.50
ShotsContext
22.50
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
10.50
37%
On target shareContext
47%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
16.00
70%
Box shareContext
70%
4%
ConversionContext
18%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
15.00
Shots allowedContext
6.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
5.00
BlocksContext
2.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
88%
Save rateContext
100%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
254
PassesContext
555
188
Accurate passesContext
492
74%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.74
Team ratingContext
7.41
19.00
FoulsContext
9.00
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.53
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.70
50%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
14.40
ShotsContext
16.10
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.30
31%
On target shareContext
45%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
55%
Box shareContext
60%
5%
ConversionContext
16%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.40
Shots allowedContext
6.80
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
3.20
BlocksContext
2.88
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.40
67%
Save rateContext
78%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
325
PassesContext
493
252
Accurate passesContext
426
77%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.26
14.00
FoulsContext
12.10
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
15.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,410 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Sporting CP
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel972 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 972 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,410 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
37Lucas França(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
2João Aurélio
15C. Labidi
6Matheus Dias
28Liziero
11Paulinho Bóia
9J. Ramírez
99Pablo Ruan
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
91Ricardo Mangas
25G. Inácio
6Z. Debast
22Iván Fresneda
5H. Morita
42M. Hjulmand
8Pote
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sporting CP
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Sporting CP-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Sporting CP · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Nacional wins0 draws2 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game0.50 – 4.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 25 Jan 2025Sporting CP2–0Nacional
- 17 Aug 2024Nacional1–6Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 4.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Nacional | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 4.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.50 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 15.00 | 8.00 | 8.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 3.50 | 4.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Nacional | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.56 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 2.56 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 7.56 | 8.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 6.00 | 4.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa Portugal · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.50league 5.06
Red cards0.00league 0.11
Cards 5+100%league 61%
Fouls25.5league 28.6
Penalties0.00league 0.39
Home wins50%league 44%
Nacional1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D10 May 25H · Rio Ave3–31
Sporting CPNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nacional2 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Sporting CP2 games · scored 8 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 26 · conceded 4
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
7
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
