Nantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nantes were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Nantes. Nantes had 6 days of rest, Angers 6.9 and had to travel 81 km.
Away travel81 kmRest days6 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Nantes43%
Draw30%
Angers26%
Nantes41%
Draw27%
Angers32%
Nantes43%
Draw31%
Angers27%
Nantes37%
Draw31%
Angers32%
Nantes44%
Draw30%
Angers26%
Over 2.5 36%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nantes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 105
Team strength
Nantes
Angers
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
24
AttackIn forecast
22
45
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAngers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NantesAngers
0.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.92
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
63%
Scored inContext
63%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.67
ShotsContext
8.75
2.95
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
28%
On target shareContext
37%
6.17
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
60%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.85
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.46
4.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.30
BlocksContext
2.83
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
66%
Save rateContext
75%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
356
PassesContext
405
285
Accurate passesContext
337
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.08
FoulsContext
10.79
13.08
Fouls sufferedContext
10.88
2.04
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.00
ShotsContext
9.50
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
32%
On target shareContext
38%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
5.75
63%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.22
10.80
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.75
BlocksContext
2.10
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
61%
Save rateContext
74%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
361
PassesContext
439
288
Accurate passesContext
372
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.30
FoulsContext
10.20
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nantes
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,023 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Angers
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel81 km1,492 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nantes |
Angers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 81 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,023 km | 1,492 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
27D. Machado
3N. Cozza
2Ali Yusuf
6C. Awaziem
18F. Centonze
66L. Leroux
21M. Kaba
8J. Lepenant
10M. Abline
37I. Ganago
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
24E. Biumla
3J. Ekomié
8B. van den Boomen
93H. Belkebla
14Y. Belkhdim
2C. Arcus
9G. Koyalipou
7M. Sbaï
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nantes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Angers
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nantes+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Angers-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Nantes · Home
0.67points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.83
Angers · Away
0.75points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-7
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.42
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nantes | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| LE Havre | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Monaco | L 1–3 AL 3–5 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lorient | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Nice | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Paris FC | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Marseille | W 2–0 A | L 2–5 HD 2–2 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Metz | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Rennes | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 0–1 A | L 0–5 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 17 of 69 · 0.74 per game | 26 of 69 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Nantes wins3 draws2 Angers wins
Goals per game1.14 – 1.14
Over 2.529%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 29%
- 12 Dec 2025Angers4–1Nantes
- 4 May 2025Nantes0–1Angers
- 22 Sep 2024Angers1–1Nantes
- 3 Jun 2023Nantes1–0Angers
- 7 Aug 2022Angers0–0Nantes
- 17 Apr 2022Nantes1–1Angers
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nantes | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.92 | 0.92 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.17 | 2.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 25% | 36% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 38% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Nantes | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.30 | 2.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 36% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nantes | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 3.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 4.74 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.17 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 15/23 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 11/23 | 30% 7/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 10/23 | 17% 4/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 1.54 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.21 | |
| Match total | 4.58 | 2.75 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 17/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 11/24 | 8% 2/24 | |
| Nantes | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 7.00 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 2.90 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 105 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.51league 3.71
Red cards0.26league 0.29
Cards 5+37%league 36%
Fouls24.6league 23.9
Penalties0.40league 0.39
Home wins43%league 49%
Nantes9 with this referee
Record1-3-5
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L15 Sep 24H · Reims1–23
- L20 Apr 24H · Rennes0–31
- W24 Feb 24A · Lorient1–02
- L13 Aug 23H · Toulouse1–22
- L3 May 23A · Stade Brestois 290–21
Angers6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 2
- L28 Sep 25H · Stade Brestois 290–21
- L15 Mar 25H · Monaco0–21
- W1 Dec 24A · LE Havre1–00
- D20 Oct 24A · Toulouse1–14
- D5 Feb 23A · Lorient0–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nantes24 games · scored 22 · conceded 41
4
4
0-15
1
8
16-30
8
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
14
76-90
Angers24 games · scored 22 · conceded 30
1
2
0-15
5
5
16-30
2
7
31-45
4
5
46-60
1
8
61-75
9
3
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1
1
0-15
7
16-30
5
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
7
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
