Nantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were clear favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nantes. Nantes had 7.1 days of rest, Lyon 6.3 and had to travel 524 km.
Away travel524 kmRest days7.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 3
Nantes17%
Draw23%
Lyon60%
Nantes16%
Draw22%
Lyon62%
Nantes17%
Draw23%
Lyon61%
Nantes13%
Draw20%
Lyon67%
Nantes18%
Draw23%
Lyon59%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nantes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 52
Team strength
Nantes
Lyon
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
24
AttackIn forecast
55
45
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NantesLyon
0.95
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.65
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
65%
Scored inContext
85%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.80
ShotsContext
12.00
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
30%
On target shareContext
39%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
59%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.77
OffsidesContext
1.81
14.35
Shots allowedContext
10.45
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.47
4.69
BlocksContext
4.13
3.26
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.61
67%
Save rateContext
75%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
362
PassesContext
462
291
Accurate passesContext
398
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.90
FoulsContext
13.80
13.25
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.15
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.61
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.80
ShotsContext
13.90
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.10
35%
On target shareContext
44%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
10.44
61%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.40
Shots allowedContext
8.50
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
4.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
62%
Save rateContext
76%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
363
PassesContext
512
293
Accurate passesContext
447
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.67
Team ratingContext
7.01
12.60
FoulsContext
12.40
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nantes
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km298 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lyon
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel524 km765 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nantes |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 6.3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 524 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 298 km | 765 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
3N. Cozza
2Ali Yusuf
98K. Amian
17D. Assoumani
21M. Kaba
8J. Lepenant
18F. Centonze
10M. Abline
20R. Cabella
31M. Abdalla
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
99N. Nartey
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
17Afonso Moreira
10P. Šulc
9Endrick
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nantes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nantes+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lyon-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Nantes · Home
0.50points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.10
Lyon · Away
1.50points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-3
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.30
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nantes | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Nice | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Paris FC | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Marseille | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Angers | L 1–4 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Metz | L 0–2 H | W 5–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Monaco | L 3–5 H | W 3–1 A |
| Lille | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Rennes | D 2–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 14 of 57 · 0.74 per game | 36 of 57 · 1.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
0 Nantes wins3 draws6 Lyon wins
Goals per game0.56 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets11% · 56%
- 30 Nov 2025Lyon3–0Nantes
- 26 Jan 2025Nantes1–1Lyon
- 6 Oct 2024Lyon2–0Nantes
- 7 Apr 2024Nantes1–3Lyon
- 20 Dec 2023Lyon1–0Nantes
- 17 Mar 2023Lyon1–1Nantes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nantes | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.95 | 1.65 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.65 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 55% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 55% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 45% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 15% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Nantes | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nantes | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.16 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.79 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 8.95 | 10.33 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 12/19 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 9/19 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 8/19 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.95 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 4.60 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 13/20 | 75% 15/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 8/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Nantes | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.11 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 7.89 | 7.88 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.20 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 52 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.15league 3.63
Red cards0.38league 0.31
Cards 5+50%league 36%
Fouls26.8league 24.2
Penalties0.33league 0.42
Home wins44%league 49%
Nantes4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D20 Sep 25H · Rennes2–23
- D22 Sep 24A · Angers1–14
- W12 Feb 23H · Lorient1–00
- W28 Aug 22H · Toulouse3–10
Lyon5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds3
- L7 Dec 25A · Lorient0–12
- W28 Sep 25A · Lille1–04
- W14 Apr 24H · Stade Brestois 294–35
- W9 Mar 24A · Lorient2–00
- L19 Aug 23H · Montpellier1–45
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nantes20 games · scored 19 · conceded 36
3
4
0-15
1
4
16-30
6
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
13
76-90
Lyon20 games · scored 33 · conceded 20
4
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
8
5
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
9
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 9 · conceded 21
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
10
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 22 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
8
3
31-45
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
