Nantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nantes were slight favourites.
Nantes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 14). Nantes had 14.1 days of rest, Paris FC 13.9 and had to travel 342 km.
Away travel342 kmRest days14.1 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Nantes52%
Draw25%
Paris FC23%
Nantes52%
Draw25%
Paris FC23%
Nantes51%
Draw26%
Paris FC23%
Nantes44%
Draw27%
Paris FC29%
Nantes53%
Draw25%
Paris FC23%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nantes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Millot
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 82
Team strength
Nantes
Paris FC
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
24
AttackIn forecast
46
45
DefenceIn forecast
38
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NantesParis FC
0.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.65
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.82
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
59%
Scored inContext
76%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
9.53
ShotsContext
11.82
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.53
31%
On target shareContext
30%
5.65
Shots in the boxContext
7.59
57%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.64
OffsidesContext
2.57
15.65
Shots allowedContext
11.29
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
4.67
BlocksContext
3.53
3.47
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
69%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
350
PassesContext
497
281
Accurate passesContext
430
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.47
FoulsContext
10.76
13.35
Fouls sufferedContext
11.29
1.76
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
70%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.70
ShotsContext
10.40
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
38%
On target shareContext
24%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
58%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.67
OffsidesContext
3.13
15.70
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.11
BlocksContext
3.11
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
62%
Save rateContext
63%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
327
PassesContext
473
259
Accurate passesContext
402
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.67
11.90
FoulsContext
10.50
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nantes
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris FC
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel342 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nantes |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Jan | 13.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 342 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
3N. Cozza
78Tylel Tati
28I. Sissoko
27D. Machado
80J. Mwanga
13F. Coquelin
98K. Amian
20R. Cabella
19Y. El-Arabi
10M. Abline
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
19N. Sangui
6Otávio
15T. Kolodziejczak
5M. Mbow
14H. Traoré
7Alimami Gory
17Adama Camara
21M. Lopez
10I. Kebbal
11J. Krasso
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nantes
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris FC
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nantes+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Paris FC-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Nantes · Home
0.63points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.88
Paris FC · Away
0.89points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-5
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nantes | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | W 2–0 A | L 2–5 A |
| Angers | L 1–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Lyon | L 0–3 A | D 3–3 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Metz | L 0–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Monaco | L 3–5 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lille | L 0–2 H | L 2–4 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Rennes | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Nice | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Strasbourg | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 11 of 48 · 0.69 per game | 16 of 48 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Nantes wins0 draws0 Paris FC wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 24 Oct 2025Paris FC1–2Nantes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nantes | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.94 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.65 | 1.82 | |
| Match goals | 2.59 | 3.12 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 59% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 65% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 24% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Nantes | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nantes | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.19 | 4.47 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.56 | 5.18 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 9.65 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 12/16 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 9/16 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 8/16 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 1.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.12 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.94 | 3.53 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 10/17 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 6/17 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Nantes | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.78 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 9.90 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.00 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Millot France · 82 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 3.64
Red cards0.27league 0.33
Cards 5+37%league 36%
Fouls25.5league 24.1
Penalties0.26league 0.45
Home wins44%league 51%
Nantes6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W15 Mar 25H · Lille1–03
- W2 Feb 25A · Reims2–13
- W31 Aug 24A · Montpellier3–12
- L17 Dec 23H · Stade Brestois 290–21
- D17 Mar 23A · Lyon1–11
Paris FC2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L23 Nov 25A · Lille2–41
- W3 Oct 25H · Lorient2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nantes17 games · scored 16 · conceded 28
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
10
76-90
Paris FC17 games · scored 22 · conceded 31
3
3
0-15
4
6
16-30
3
6
31-45
4
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
8
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
4
9
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
