Nantes vs Rennes – 20 Sep 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 20 · 16:00 Stade de la Beaujoire – Louis Fonteneau, Nantes

Nantes 14th · 3 pts · 4 played LLWL

2–2Full time

Rennes 6th · 7 pts · 4 played WLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 24). Nantes had 7 days of rest, Rennes 5.8 and had to travel 100 km.

Away travel100 kmRest days7 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Nantes33%

Draw28%

Rennes39%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.37

Nantes34%

Draw27%

Rennes39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.40

Nantes33%

Draw28%

Rennes39%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.36

Nantes27%

Draw27%

Rennes47%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.54

Nantes34%

Draw27%

Rennes39%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.41

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nantes)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 46

Team strength

Nantes

Rennes

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

19 Current StrengthIn forecast 52

24 AttackIn forecast 63

45 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rennes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nantes

Rennes

0.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.41 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.94

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.09

25% Scored inContext 75%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

8.00 ShotsContext 13.25

2.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

25% On target shareContext 34%

4.25 Shots in the boxContext 9.67

48% Box shareContext 60%

3% ConversionContext 9%

1.50 OffsidesContext 3.33

16.50 Shots allowedContext 16.00

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.25

5.50 BlocksContext 6.33

4.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

85% Save rateContext 71%

42% PossessionIn forecast 47%

364 PassesContext 467

290 Accurate passesContext 403

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.84

10.25 FoulsContext 11.00

10.75 Fouls sufferedContext 12.75

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.75

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

0.69 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.66

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

50% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.30 ShotsContext 12.40

2.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

28% On target shareContext 37%

4.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

55% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 15%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.25

13.10 Shots allowedContext 13.10

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

4.00 BlocksContext 3.75

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

76% Save rateContext 65%

43% PossessionIn forecast 50%

383 PassesContext 450

315 Accurate passesContext 391

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.92

11.20 FoulsContext 12.00

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.30

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nantes

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,581 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rennes

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel100 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nantes	Rennes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Sep	5.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	100 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,581 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	8.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nantes Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1A. Lopes(G)

3N. Cozza 78Tylel Tati 6C. Awaziem 98K. Amian

80J. Mwanga

10M. Abline 66L. Leroux 8J. Lepenant 15M. Lahdo

31M. Abdalla

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Rennes Confirmed XI

3-5-2

30B. Samba(G)

24A. Rouault 97J. Jacquet 36A. Seidu

26Q. Merlin 8S. Fofana 21V. Rongier 10L. Blas 45M. Camara

7B. Embolo 9E. Lepaul

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nantes Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Rennes Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nantes+0.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Rennes-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Nantes · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.50

Rennes · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Nantes wins0 draws6 Rennes wins

Goals per game0.63 – 1.75 Over 2.563% Both scored38% Clean sheets13% · 50%

18 Apr 2025Rennes2–1Nantes
8 Dec 2024Nantes1–0Rennes
20 Apr 2024Nantes0–3Rennes
1 Oct 2023Rennes3–1Nantes
26 Feb 2023Nantes0–1Rennes
9 Oct 2022Rennes3–0Nantes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nantes	Rennes	Forecast
Scored per game	0.25	1.25
Conceded per game	0.75	1.50
Match goals	1.00	2.75	2.62
Over 1.5	0%	75%
Over 2.5	0%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	75%	25%
Games	4	4

	Nantes	Rennes	Forecast
Scored per game	0.25	1.25
Conceded per game	0.75	1.50
Match goals	1.00	2.75	2.62
Over 1.5	0%	75%
Over 2.5	0%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	75%	25%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nantes	Rennes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	3.75
Corners conceded	7.50	4.75
Match total	11.25	8.50	10.24
Over 8.5	100% 4/4	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	75% 3/4	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	75% 3/4	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.25
Opponent cards	2.00	3.50
Match total	3.00	5.75	3.88
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	100% 4/4
Over 4.5	0% 0/4	75% 3/4

	Nantes	Rennes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	4.33
Corners conceded	6.30	4.67
Match total	10.00	9.00	10.24
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.10
Opponent cards	2.20	2.80
Match total	4.20	4.90	3.88
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 46 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.17league 3.46

Red cards0.39league 0.41

Cards 5+52%league 38%

Fouls26.6league 23.5

Penalties0.33league 0.51

Home wins46%league 68%

Nantes3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

D22 Sep 24A · Angers1–14
W12 Feb 23H · Lorient1–00
W28 Aug 22H · Toulouse3–10

Rennes8 with this referee

Record2-2-4 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 1

L8 Mar 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–42
W8 Feb 25A · Saint Etienne2–05
L24 Nov 24A · Lille0–12
L1 Sep 24A · Reims1–21
L19 May 24A · Reims1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.