Napoli vs Arsenal – 9 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 9 · 20:00 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli

Napoli

0–1Full time

Arsenal

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (95 vs 66). Absences weigh more on Napoli. Napoli had 4.1 days of rest, Arsenal 3.1 and had to travel 1,617 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel1,617 kmRest days4.1 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Napoli16%

Draw21%

Arsenal62%

Expected goals 0.88 – 1.94

Napoli17%

Draw21%

Arsenal62%

Expected goals 0.91 – 1.96

Napoli17%

Draw22%

Arsenal61%

Expected goals 0.87 – 1.88

Napoli12%

Draw18%

Arsenal69%

Expected goals 0.78 – 2.18

Napoli17%

Draw22%

Arsenal62%

Expected goals 0.86 – 1.89

Over 2.5 54% Both score 50% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Napoli)

27°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 82%

Heat stress

RefereeGlenn Nyberg

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 45

Team strength

Napoli

Arsenal

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 95

61 Current StrengthIn forecast 94

61 AttackIn forecast 86

70 DefenceIn forecast 95

47 Form indexContext 89

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Napoli

Arsenal

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.40

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.68

0.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.81

+0.44 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

80% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 60%

14.20 ShotsContext 13.70

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

32% On target shareContext 33%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

64% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.90 OffsidesContext 3.63

12.30 Shots allowedContext 10.40

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.88

3.33 BlocksContext 3.20

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

72% Save rateContext 83%

57% PossessionIn forecast 55%

547 PassesContext 485

490 Accurate passesContext 418

90% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.05

7.70 FoulsContext 10.40

9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Napoli WLL

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,315 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 47 · 3 pts vs 3.3 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

L5 SepA · Inter2–30.8 xPts
L30 AugH · Como1–21.6 xPts
W22 AugA · Genoa2–01.7 xPts

Arsenal WWW

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,617 km325 km in 14d

Schedule load28%Moderate

Form 89 · 9 pts vs 3.2 for an average club · +2.6 vs expected

W6 SepH · Chelsea2–12.2 xPts
W31 AugA · Aston Villa1–01.7 xPts
W21 AugH · Coventry3–02.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Napoli	Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 28
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Serie A 2026-2027, 5 Sep	3.1Premier League 2026-2027, 6 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,617 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,315 km	325 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Napoli Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1A. Meret(G)

17M. Olivera 16Rafa Marín 13A. Rrahmani 22G. Di Lorenzo

68S. Lobotka 6B. Gilmour 11K. De Bruyne

27Alisson Santos 19R. Højlund 21M. Politano

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1David Raya(G)

5P. Hincapié 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 4B. White

23Mikel Merino 41D. Rice

10E. Eze 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka

14V. Gyökeres

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Napoli Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Arsenal Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Napoli-0.6 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
Arsenal+1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Napoli · Home No home games yet this season.

Arsenal · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Napoli	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.82
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	54%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	50%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Napoli	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.60
Conceded per game	1.10	0.60
Match goals	2.70	2.20	2.82
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	54%
Over 3.5	30%	0%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	60%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Napoli	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.13
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.88
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Napoli	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	3.90
Corners conceded	4.11	4.00
Match total	8.78	7.90	10.13
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	0.90	1.60
Opponent cards	1.90	2.10
Match total	2.80	3.70	3.88
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Glenn Nyberg 45 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.11league 3.75

Red cards0.11league 0.13

Cards 5+27%league 25%

Fouls22.2league 24.9

Penalties0.24league 0.25

Home wins44%league 63%

Napoli

No previous matches with this referee.

Arsenal1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W24 Oct 23A · Sevilla2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.