Napoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards AS Roma. Napoli had 8.1 days of rest, AS Roma 6 and had to travel 187 km.
Away travel187 kmRest days8.1 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Napoli40%
Draw28%
AS Roma32%
Napoli44%
Draw27%
AS Roma30%
Napoli40%
Draw29%
AS Roma32%
Napoli33%
Draw28%
AS Roma39%
Napoli40%
Draw28%
AS Roma32%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Napoli)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 65
Team strength
Napoli
AS Roma
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
61
AttackIn forecast
72
70
DefenceIn forecast
75
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NapoliAS Roma
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
0.96
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.58
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
75%
Scored inContext
71%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
46%
12.92
ShotsContext
13.46
4.74
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.79
35%
On target shareContext
36%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.41
63%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.95
10.92
Shots allowedContext
9.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.46
3.22
BlocksContext
2.68
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
67%
Save rateContext
85%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
528
PassesContext
491
456
Accurate passesContext
412
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.00
FoulsContext
14.42
13.25
Fouls sufferedContext
14.25
1.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.90
ShotsContext
13.60
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
30%
On target shareContext
36%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.44
66%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.29
OffsidesContext
1.80
10.80
Shots allowedContext
8.10
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.40
3.20
BlocksContext
3.00
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
58%
Save rateContext
86%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
575
PassesContext
484
506
Accurate passesContext
404
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.50
FoulsContext
14.70
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Napoli
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AS Roma
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel187 km936 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Napoli |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 187 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,176 km | 936 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
4A. Buongiorno
13A. Rrahmani
31S. Beukema
37L. Spinazzola
68S. Lobotka
20E. Elmas
3Miguel Gutiérrez
26A. Vergara
21M. Politano
19R. Højlund
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
87D. Ghilardi
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
43Wesley
4B. Cristante
61N. Pisilli
19M. Çelik
7L. Pellegrini
97Bryan Zaragoza
14D. Malen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Napoli
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Napoli-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- AS Roma+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Napoli · Home
2.45points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-0
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 0.82
AS Roma · Away
1.75points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-0-5
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Napoli | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Juventus | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Sassuolo | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Inter | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Verona | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Lazio | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Cremonese | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Udinese | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Atalanta | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Bologna | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Como | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Lecce | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Torino | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H |
| AC Milan | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Pisa | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Cagliari | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 46 of 69 · 2.00 per game | 46 of 69 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Napoli wins4 draws1 AS Roma wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.78
Over 2.522%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets44% · 22%
- 30 Nov 2025AS Roma0–1Napoli
- 2 Feb 2025AS Roma1–1Napoli
- 24 Nov 2024Napoli1–0AS Roma
- 28 Apr 2024Napoli2–2AS Roma
- 23 Dec 2023AS Roma2–0Napoli
- 29 Jan 2023Napoli2–1AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Napoli | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.96 | 0.58 | |
| Match goals | 2.46 | 1.79 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 21% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 8% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 25% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 46% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 29% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Napoli | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 10% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Napoli | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.73 | 4.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.95 | 3.17 | |
| Match total | 7.68 | 8.13 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 27% 6/22 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 18% 4/22 | 25% 6/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 4/22 | 21% 5/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.54 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.62 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 10/24 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 4/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Napoli | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.40 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 7.30 | 7.50 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 65 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.77league 3.82
Red cards0.18league 0.19
Cards 5+55%league 37%
Fouls24.7league 25.4
Penalties0.14league 0.32
Home wins38%league 38%
Napoli8 with this referee
Record5-0-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W9 Mar 25H · Fiorentina2–11
- W18 Jan 25A · Atalanta3–22
- L8 Dec 24H · Lazio0–12
- W29 Oct 24A · AC Milan2–01
- L23 Dec 23A · AS Roma0–25
AS Roma8 with this referee
Record4-4-0
Cards · opp.2.1 · 3.4
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D25 Jan 26H · AC Milan1–10
- W5 Oct 25A · Fiorentina2–13
- D6 Apr 25H · Juventus1–11
- D5 May 24H · Juventus1–11
- W23 Dec 23H · Napoli2–07
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Napoli24 games · scored 36 · conceded 23
7
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
7
3
31-45
7
7
46-60
4
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
AS Roma24 games · scored 29 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
7
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
9
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 15 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
