Napoli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Napoli39.9%fair odds 2.51
Draw28.3%fair odds 3.53
AS Roma31.8%fair odds 3.14
Expected goals1.33 – 1.16total 2.49
Likeliest score1–113.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AS Roma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Napoli ↓ · AS Roma → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Napoli goals, columns AS Roma goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%7.43
- 1–010.3%9.68
- 0–09.0%11.17
- 0–18.9%11.19
- 2–18.5%11.76
- 1–27.4%13.46
- 2–07.3%13.66
- 0–25.6%17.90
- 2–24.9%20.24
- 3–13.8%26.52
Winning margin
6.6%
Napoli by 3+
fair 15.07
11.9%
Napoli by 2
fair 8.40
21.3%
Napoli by 1
fair 4.69
28.3%
Draw
fair 3.53
18.5%
AS Roma by 1
fair 5.39
9.1%
AS Roma by 2
fair 11.01
4.2%
AS Roma by 3+
fair 23.70
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Napoli goals
26%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
AS Roma goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli win | 39.9% | 40.3% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 28.3% | 27.5% | +0.8 pp |
| AS Roma win | 31.8% | 32.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.4% | 48.4% | -3.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.2% | 53.6% | -2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Napoli | 1.33 | 1.39 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals AS Roma | 1.16 | 1.22 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Napoli win39.9%2.51
- Draw28.3%3.53
- AS Roma win31.8%3.14
- Double chance Napoli or draw68.2%1.47
- Double chance Napoli or AS Roma71.7%1.39
- Double chance AS Roma or draw60.1%1.66
- Draw no bet Napoli55.6%1.80
- Draw no bet AS Roma44.4%2.25
Goals
- Over 0.591.0%1.10
- Over 1.571.8%1.39
- Over 2.545.4%2.20
- Over 3.524.1%4.16
- Over 4.510.8%9.28
- Under 1.528.2%3.54
- Under 2.554.6%1.83
- Under 3.575.9%1.32
Both teams to score
- Yes51.2%1.95
- No48.8%2.05
- Yes and over 2.537.7%2.65
- Napoli win and yes17.5%5.71
- Draw and yes19.3%5.17
- AS Roma win and yes14.3%6.97
Team goals
- Napoli over 0.573.6%1.36
- Napoli over 1.538.4%2.61
- Napoli over 2.515.0%6.67
- AS Roma over 0.568.7%1.46
- AS Roma over 1.532.4%3.09
- AS Roma over 2.511.2%8.90
- Napoli clean sheet31.3%3.20
- AS Roma clean sheet26.4%3.78
- Napoli win to nil22.3%4.48
- AS Roma win to nil17.5%5.72
Handicap
- Napoli −1.518.5%5.40
- Napoli −2.56.6%15.07
- AS Roma +1.581.5%1.23
- AS Roma +2.593.4%1.07
- AS Roma −1.513.3%7.52
- Napoli +1.586.7%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored247
Favourite won50.6%
Avg chance given to result40.7%
1X2 Brier0.601
Over 2.5 called right51.8%
BTTS called right50.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 37.7% | 39.5% |
| 40–50% | 79 | 44.8% | 45.6% |
| 50–60% | 58 | 54.6% | 44.8% |
| 60–70% | 48 | 64.8% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 73.3% | 64.7% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 71.4% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 226 of 247 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5970 | 0.5799 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 50.4% | 52.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 226 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 247 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.