Napoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were slight favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Napoli. Napoli had 9.1 days of rest, Bologna 8.3 and had to travel 470 km.
Away travel470 kmRest days9.1 · 8.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Napoli58%
Draw25%
Bologna17%
Napoli57%
Draw24%
Bologna19%
Napoli57%
Draw25%
Bologna17%
Napoli51%
Draw27%
Bologna22%
Napoli59%
Draw24%
Bologna17%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Napoli)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Piccinini
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 51
Team strength
Napoli
Bologna
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
61
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
61
AttackIn forecast
35
70
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NapoliBologna
1.49
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.94
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
77%
Scored inContext
69%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
12.94
ShotsContext
12.66
4.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.82
36%
On target shareContext
28%
8.23
Shots in the boxContext
7.97
62%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.76
OffsidesContext
2.43
10.29
Shots allowedContext
9.83
3.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.68
2.94
BlocksContext
2.97
2.37
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.65
70%
Save rateContext
68%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
540
PassesContext
436
470
Accurate passesContext
363
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.43
FoulsContext
12.57
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.09
1.31
Yellow cardsContext
1.74
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
0.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.20
ShotsContext
12.70
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
35%
On target shareContext
31%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
61%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.78
8.90
Shots allowedContext
10.60
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.13
BlocksContext
3.56
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
77%
Save rateContext
58%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
565
PassesContext
468
501
Accurate passesContext
396
89%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.80
FoulsContext
14.30
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Napoli
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,384 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bologna
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel470 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Napoli |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1Serie A 2025-2026, 2 May | 8.3Serie A 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 470 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,384 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.6 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
4A. Buongiorno
13A. Rrahmani
22G. Di Lorenzo
3Miguel Gutiérrez
8S. McTominay
68S. Lobotka
21M. Politano
27Alisson Santos
23Giovane
19R. Højlund
Bologna
Confirmed XI
25M. Pessina(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
5E. Helland
17João Mário
19L. Ferguson
8R. Freuler
4T. Pobega
10F. Bernardeschi
9S. Castro
7R. Orsolini
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Napoli
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Napoli+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Bologna-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Napoli · Home
2.35points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-4-1
- Scored
- 1.76
- Conceded
- 0.88
Bologna · Away
1.65points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-5
- Scored
- 1.53
- Conceded
- 1.24
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Napoli | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Como | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Cremonese | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Lazio | L 0–2 HW 2–0 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Parma | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 HW 3–1 A |
| AC Milan | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Cagliari | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Lecce | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Verona | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| AS Roma | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Genoa | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Juventus | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Sassuolo | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Inter | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Udinese | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Pisa | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Points | 70 of 102 · 2.06 per game | 46 of 102 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Napoli wins3 draws2 Bologna wins
Goals per game1.56 – 1.00
Over 2.544%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets44% · 33%
- 9 Nov 2025Bologna2–0Napoli
- 7 Apr 2025Bologna1–1Napoli
- 25 Aug 2024Napoli3–0Bologna
- 11 May 2024Napoli0–2Bologna
- 24 Sep 2023Bologna0–0Napoli
- 28 May 2023Bologna2–2Napoli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Napoli | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.49 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.94 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.37 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 43% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 43% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 31% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Napoli | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.70 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Napoli | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.81 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.97 | 4.29 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 8.73 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 31% 10/32 | 50% 17/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 7/32 | 38% 13/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 7/32 | 32% 11/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.91 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 3.29 | 4.00 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 37% 13/35 | 51% 18/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 5/35 | 43% 15/35 | |
| Napoli | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.22 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 8.50 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.30 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Piccinini Italy · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.06league 3.69
Red cards0.20league 0.19
Cards 5+41%league 34%
Fouls24.6league 24.7
Penalties0.29league 0.28
Home wins41%league 39%
Napoli3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D11 May 25H · Genoa2–21
- W4 Feb 24H · Verona2–13
- W26 Sep 21H · Cagliari2–02
Bologna5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W21 Dec 24A · Torino2–02
- D14 Sep 24A · Como2–21
- W4 Jun 23A · Lecce3–22
- D8 Oct 22H · Sampdoria1–12
- L12 Feb 22A · Lazio0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Napoli35 games · scored 52 · conceded 33
11
7
0-15
6
3
16-30
10
3
31-45
10
8
46-60
6
6
61-75
9
6
76-90
Bologna35 games · scored 42 · conceded 41
2
5
0-15
7
2
16-30
8
8
31-45
11
8
46-60
6
10
61-75
8
8
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
4
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
