Napoli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Napoli58.4%fair odds 1.71
Draw24.8%fair odds 4.04
Bologna16.8%fair odds 5.94
Expected goals1.72 – 0.81total 2.53
Likeliest score1–013.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bologna
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Napoli ↓ · Bologna → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Napoli goals, columns Bologna goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–013.1%7.65
- 2–011.8%8.51
- 1–111.7%8.56
- 2–19.6%10.47
- 0–08.5%11.73
- 3–06.7%14.82
- 0–15.9%17.06
- 3–15.5%18.25
- 1–24.5%22.18
- 2–23.9%25.77
Winning margin
15.0%
Napoli by 3+
fair 6.67
18.3%
Napoli by 2
fair 5.47
25.1%
Napoli by 1
fair 3.98
24.8%
Draw
fair 4.04
11.6%
Bologna by 1
fair 8.66
4.1%
Bologna by 2
fair 24.54
1.2%
Bologna by 3+
fair 82.11
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
11%5+
Napoli goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
10%4+
Bologna goals
44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli win | 58.4% | 59.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 24.8% | 24.0% | +0.7 pp |
| Bologna win | 16.8% | 16.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.5% | 49.2% | -2.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.3% | 48.3% | -2.1 pp |
| Expected goals Napoli | 1.72 | 1.79 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Bologna | 0.81 | 0.85 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Napoli win58.4%1.71
- Draw24.8%4.04
- Bologna win16.8%5.94
- Double chance Napoli or draw83.2%1.20
- Double chance Napoli or Bologna75.2%1.33
- Double chance Bologna or draw41.6%2.40
- Draw no bet Napoli77.6%1.29
- Draw no bet Bologna22.4%4.47
Goals
- Over 0.591.5%1.09
- Over 1.572.5%1.38
- Over 2.546.5%2.15
- Over 3.525.0%4.01
- Over 4.511.3%8.82
- Under 1.527.5%3.64
- Under 2.553.5%1.87
- Under 3.575.0%1.33
Both teams to score
- Yes46.3%2.16
- No53.7%1.86
- Yes and over 2.534.6%2.89
- Napoli win and yes22.6%4.43
- Draw and yes16.2%6.16
- Bologna win and yes7.5%13.36
Team goals
- Napoli over 0.582.1%1.22
- Napoli over 1.551.3%1.95
- Napoli over 2.524.8%4.03
- Bologna over 0.555.6%1.80
- Bologna over 1.519.6%5.11
- Bologna over 2.54.9%20.32
- Napoli clean sheet44.4%2.25
- Bologna clean sheet17.9%5.59
- Napoli win to nil35.9%2.79
- Bologna win to nil9.4%10.68
Handicap
- Napoli −1.533.3%3.01
- Napoli −2.515.0%6.67
- Bologna +1.566.7%1.50
- Bologna +2.585.0%1.18
- Bologna −1.55.3%18.89
- Napoli +1.594.7%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored359
Favourite won51.5%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.593
Over 2.5 called right51.5%
BTTS called right51.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 56 | 37.8% | 33.9% |
| 40–50% | 119 | 45.0% | 48.7% |
| 50–60% | 88 | 54.5% | 47.7% |
| 60–70% | 63 | 64.8% | 69.8% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 73.3% | 64.0% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 82.4% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 298 of 359 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5994 | 0.5865 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 41.0% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 52.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 298 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 359 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.