Napoli vs Bologna – 13 Sep 2026

Serie A Gameweek 4 Sun, Sep 13 · 17:00 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli

Napoli 13th · 3 pts · 3 played WLL

1–0Full time

Bologna 16th · 1 pts · 3 played LLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Napoli were slight favourites.

Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Bologna. Napoli had 3.9 days of rest, Bologna 7 and had to travel 470 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel470 kmRest days3.9 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2

Napoli49%

Draw25%

Bologna26%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.11

Napoli55%

Draw23%

Bologna22%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.02

Napoli50%

Draw24%

Bologna25%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.09

Napoli42%

Draw26%

Bologna32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.25

Napoli49%

Draw25%

Bologna26%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.08

Over 2.5 52% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Napoli)

29°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 11 km/h
Humidity 39%

Warm

RefereeKevin Bonacina

Cards per match 3.1
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 15

Team strength

Napoli

Bologna

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

61 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

61 AttackIn forecast 35

70 DefenceIn forecast 48

43 Form indexContext 23

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Napoli

Bologna

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

0.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.40

+0.60 Goals minus xGContext -0.87

100% Scored inContext 33%

33% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.00 ShotsContext 17.00

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33

31% On target shareContext 26%

8.67 Shots in the boxContext 11.67

60% Box shareContext 69%

12% ConversionContext 4%

4.00 OffsidesContext 3.00

20.33 Shots allowedContext 10.67

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67

5.67 BlocksContext 4.00

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

69% Save rateContext 64%

44% PossessionIn forecast 59%

429 PassesContext 557

367 Accurate passesContext 509

86% Pass accuracyContext 91%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.78

7.67 FoulsContext 14.67

7.33 Fouls sufferedContext 12.67

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

0.99 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

70% Scored inContext 40%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.90 ShotsContext 12.30

4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.89

33% On target shareContext 29%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

59% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 7%

2.80 OffsidesContext 2.14

14.60 Shots allowedContext 10.80

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.00 BlocksContext 3.80

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

74% Save rateContext 53%

54% PossessionIn forecast 55%

523 PassesContext 471

465 Accurate passesContext 409

89% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.72

8.10 FoulsContext 12.20

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Napoli WLLL

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,315 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 43 · 3 pts vs 3.9 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected

L9 SepH · Arsenal0–10.7 xPts
L5 SepA · Inter2–30.8 xPts
L30 AugH · Como1–21.6 xPts
W22 AugA · Genoa2–01.7 xPts

Bologna LLD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel470 km375 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 23 · 1 pts vs 4.3 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected

D6 SepH · Sassuolo2–21.8 xPts
L31 AugA · Atalanta0–11.1 xPts
L24 AugH · Lazio0–11.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Napoli	Bologna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Sep	7Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	470 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,315 km	375 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Napoli Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

32V. Milinković-Savić(G)

37L. Spinazzola 16Rafa Marín 13A. Rrahmani 22G. Di Lorenzo

68S. Lobotka 6B. Gilmour

26A. Vergara 11K. De Bruyne 21M. Politano

19R. Højlund

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25M. Pessina(G)

33Juan Miranda 3A. Theate 14T. Heggem 2E. Holm

4T. Pobega 19L. Ferguson

28N. Cambiaghi 8M. Amondarain 10F. Bernardeschi

91R. Piccoli

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Napoli Absences are shown before kick-off

Bologna Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Napoli-0.9 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Bologna+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Napoli · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Bologna · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Napoli wins3 draws3 Bologna wins

Goals per game1.60 – 1.20 Over 2.550% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 30%

11 May 2026Napoli2–3Bologna
9 Nov 2025Bologna2–0Napoli
7 Apr 2025Bologna1–1Napoli
25 Aug 2024Napoli3–0Bologna
11 May 2024Napoli0–2Bologna
24 Sep 2023Bologna0–0Napoli

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Napoli	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	0.67
Conceded per game	1.67	1.33
Match goals	3.33	2.00	2.74
Over 1.5	100%	33%
Over 2.5	67%	33%	52%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	33%	54%
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Failed to score	0%	67%
Games	3	3

	Napoli	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.90
Conceded per game	1.10	1.70
Match goals	2.60	2.60	2.74
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	52%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	30%	54%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	30%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Napoli	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	6.67
Corners conceded	7.33	4.67
Match total	11.33	11.34	9.14
Over 8.5	100% 3/3	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	67% 2/3
Cards
Cards	1.33	2.33
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	2.33	4.33	3.26
Over 3.5	0% 0/3	67% 2/3
Over 4.5	0% 0/3	33% 1/3

	Napoli	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	4.30
Corners conceded	4.44	4.40
Match total	8.55	8.70	9.14
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.10	1.50
Opponent cards	1.90	1.50
Match total	3.00	3.00	3.26
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Kevin Bonacina 15 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.93league 3.23

Red cards0.20league 0.03

Cards 5+20%league 20%

Fouls24.5league 22.6

Penalties0.20league 0.06

Home wins40%league 37%

Napoli1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W30 Aug 25H · Cagliari1–02

Bologna3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D23 May 26H · Inter3–30
W15 Mar 26A · Sassuolo1–02
W2 Nov 25A · Parma3–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.