Napoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were clear favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 31). Absences weigh more on Napoli. Napoli had 6.9 days of rest, Genoa 5.9 and had to travel 588 km.
Away travel588 kmRest days6.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Napoli68%
Draw20%
Genoa12%
Napoli70%
Draw19%
Genoa11%
Napoli69%
Draw20%
Genoa11%
Napoli61%
Draw23%
Genoa16%
Napoli69%
Draw19%
Genoa12%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Napoli)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 38
Team strength
Napoli
Genoa
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
61
AttackIn forecast
23
70
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NapoliGenoa
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.70
100%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.20
ShotsContext
9.60
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
38%
On target shareContext
35%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
66%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
4%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
11.40
Shots allowedContext
11.20
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
3.40
BlocksContext
4.75
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
67%
Save rateContext
58%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
563
PassesContext
385
501
Accurate passesContext
302
89%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.60
FoulsContext
15.40
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
3.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.90
ShotsContext
8.70
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
39%
On target shareContext
37%
10.56
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
67%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.00
10.50
Shots allowedContext
12.80
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
3.20
BlocksContext
4.00
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
73%
Save rateContext
65%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
519
PassesContext
375
458
Accurate passesContext
296
88%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.30
FoulsContext
15.00
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Napoli
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,315 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genoa
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel588 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Napoli |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 588 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,315 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
17M. Olivera
5Juan Jesus
31S. Beukema
22G. Di Lorenzo
68S. Lobotka
7David Neres
8S. McTominay
99F. Anguissa
21M. Politano
19R. Højlund
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
77M. Ellertsson
22J. Vásquez
27A. Marcandalli
20S. Sabelli
32M. Frendrup
73P. Masini
9Vítinha
17R. Malinovskyi
15B. Norton-Cuffy
21J. Ekhator
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Napoli
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genoa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Napoli-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Genoa+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Napoli · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Genoa · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Napoli wins3 draws0 Genoa wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.17
Over 2.583%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets17% · 0%
- 11 May 2025Napoli2–2Genoa
- 21 Dec 2024Genoa1–2Napoli
- 17 Feb 2024Napoli1–1Genoa
- 16 Sep 2023Genoa2–2Napoli
- 15 May 2022Napoli3–0Genoa
- 29 Aug 2021Genoa1–2Napoli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Napoli | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.80 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Napoli | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.80 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Napoli | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 2.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.66 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 5.40 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Napoli | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 3.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.63 | 7.50 | |
| Match total | 8.38 | 10.67 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 4.50 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 3.60
Red cards0.08league 0.14
Cards 5+39%league 36%
Fouls25.4league 26.2
Penalties0.29league 0.24
Home wins34%league 38%
Napoli7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W23 May 25H · Cagliari2–02
- W19 Apr 25A · Monza1–02
- W21 Dec 24A · Genoa2–11
- W15 Sep 24A · Cagliari4–02
- D17 Mar 24A · Inter1–11
Genoa1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Dec 24H · Napoli1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Napoli5 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Genoa5 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
6
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
