NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 30). NEC Nijmegen had 6.9 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 3.7 and had to travel 116 km.
Away travel116 kmRest days6.9 · 3.7Matches / 14d1 · 3
NEC Nijmegen31%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar44%
NEC Nijmegen30%
Draw27%
AZ Alkmaar43%
NEC Nijmegen31%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar43%
NEC Nijmegen24%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar51%
NEC Nijmegen30%
Draw27%
AZ Alkmaar43%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 42
Team strength
NEC Nijmegen
AZ Alkmaar
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
37
AttackIn forecast
52
33
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenAZ Alkmaar
3.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.83
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
17.17
ShotsContext
19.17
8.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.17
47%
On target shareContext
32%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.83
63%
Box shareContext
63%
18%
ConversionContext
12%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.40
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.00
BlocksContext
4.40
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
67%
Save rateContext
78%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
475
PassesContext
480
386
Accurate passesContext
409
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.07
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.83
FoulsContext
11.00
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.33
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.69
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
100%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.50
ShotsContext
15.90
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
45%
On target shareContext
37%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
64%
Box shareContext
62%
18%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
13.30
Shots allowedContext
12.50
5.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.10
BlocksContext
4.67
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
74%
Save rateContext
84%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
444
PassesContext
442
356
Accurate passesContext
373
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.09
Team ratingContext
7.08
11.20
FoulsContext
11.00
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km249 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AZ Alkmaar
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel116 km266 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 3.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 116 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 249 km | 266 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.3 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
5T. Ouwejan
4A. Kaplan
2B. Pereira
6D. Nejašmić
11B. Önal
23K. Sano
71D. Proper
25S. Ouaissa
18K. Ogawa
30B. Linssen
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
34M. de Wit
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
30D. Kasius
10S. Mijnans
8J. Clasie
6P. Koopmeiners
27Ro-Zangelo Daal
35M. Meerdink
11I. Sadiq
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AZ Alkmaar+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 3.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
AZ Alkmaar · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Heracles | W 4–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 NEC Nijmegen wins1 draws1 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 29 Mar 2025NEC Nijmegen3–3AZ Alkmaar
- 17 Aug 2024AZ Alkmaar1–0NEC Nijmegen
- 6 Dec 2023AZ Alkmaar1–2NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.17 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 5.17 | 3.83 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 83% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 83% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| NEC Nijmegen | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.17 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 5.17 | 3.83 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 83% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 83% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.83 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.17 | 3.83 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.33 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 3.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 5.00 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 9.40 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.20 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.40league 3.51
Red cards0.24league 0.20
Cards 5+31%league 39%
Fouls22.7league 22.4
Penalties0.19league 0.20
Home wins43%league 49%
NEC Nijmegen4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L9 Mar 25H · GO Ahead Eagles2–33
- W24 Aug 24H · PEC Zwolle1–01
- D14 Jan 24A · Feyenoord2–22
- L1 Oct 23H · Vitesse1–32
AZ Alkmaar5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W11 May 25H · Groningen3–01
- W9 Feb 25H · PEC Zwolle2–01
- W14 Sep 24H · Heerenveen9–10
- D28 Jan 24A · Heerenveen2–23
- W9 Dec 23H · Almere City FC4–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen6 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
AZ Alkmaar6 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 28 · conceded 14
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
9
2
61-75
7
1
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 24 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
