NEC Nijmegen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
NEC Nijmegen30.5%fair odds 3.28
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.86
AZ Alkmaar43.6%fair odds 2.29
Expected goals1.28 – 1.58total 2.86
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AZ Alkmaar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| NEC Nijmegen ↓ · AZ Alkmaar → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NEC Nijmegen goals, columns AZ Alkmaar goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.19
- 1–29.1%10.95
- 0–18.4%11.88
- 2–17.4%13.44
- 0–27.1%14.05
- 1–06.7%14.83
- 0–06.3%15.75
- 2–25.9%17.07
- 1–34.8%20.85
- 2–04.7%21.18
Winning margin
4.5%
NEC Nijmegen by 3+
fair 22.13
8.8%
NEC Nijmegen by 2
fair 11.33
17.2%
NEC Nijmegen by 1
fair 5.83
25.9%
Draw
fair 3.86
21.2%
AZ Alkmaar by 1
fair 4.72
13.3%
AZ Alkmaar by 2
fair 7.52
9.1%
AZ Alkmaar by 3+
fair 11.01
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
NEC Nijmegen goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
AZ Alkmaar goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen win | 30.5% | 30.0% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.9% | -1.0 pp |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 43.6% | 43.1% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 50.2% | +4.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.9% | 54.6% | +3.3 pp |
| Expected goals NEC Nijmegen | 1.28 | 1.20 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals AZ Alkmaar | 1.58 | 1.48 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- NEC Nijmegen win30.5%3.28
- Draw25.9%3.86
- AZ Alkmaar win43.6%2.29
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or draw56.4%1.77
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or AZ Alkmaar74.1%1.35
- Double chance AZ Alkmaar or draw69.5%1.44
- Draw no bet NEC Nijmegen41.2%2.43
- Draw no bet AZ Alkmaar58.8%1.70
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.5%1.27
- Over 2.554.4%1.84
- Over 3.532.1%3.11
- Over 4.516.2%6.19
- Under 1.521.5%4.65
- Under 2.545.6%2.19
- Under 3.567.9%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes57.9%1.73
- No42.1%2.38
- Yes and over 2.545.7%2.19
- NEC Nijmegen win and yes16.2%6.19
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- AZ Alkmaar win and yes22.2%4.50
Team goals
- NEC Nijmegen over 0.572.3%1.38
- NEC Nijmegen over 1.536.7%2.72
- NEC Nijmegen over 2.513.9%7.19
- AZ Alkmaar over 0.579.3%1.26
- AZ Alkmaar over 1.546.7%2.14
- AZ Alkmaar over 2.521.0%4.76
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet20.7%4.83
- AZ Alkmaar clean sheet27.7%3.61
- NEC Nijmegen win to nil14.3%6.97
- AZ Alkmaar win to nil21.4%4.68
Handicap
- NEC Nijmegen −1.513.3%7.49
- NEC Nijmegen −2.54.5%22.13
- AZ Alkmaar +1.586.7%1.15
- AZ Alkmaar +2.595.5%1.05
- AZ Alkmaar −1.522.4%4.47
- NEC Nijmegen +1.577.6%1.29
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored59
Favourite won52.5%
Avg chance given to result43.7%
1X2 Brier0.549
Over 2.5 called right67.8%
BTTS called right59.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.1% | 12.5% |
| 40–50% | 17 | 44.1% | 35.3% |
| 50–60% | 17 | 56.1% | 58.8% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 64.0% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 75.2% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 37 of 59 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5445 | 0.5060 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.7% | 46.7% |
| Favourite won | 48.6% | 62.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 37 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 59 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.