Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, May 17 · 13:30 Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen 4th · 56 pts · 33 played
First leg1–1 2–1Full time
GO Ahead Eagles 12th · 38 pts · 33 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
NEC Nijmegen58.3%fair odds 1.72
Draw21.1%fair odds 4.75
GO Ahead Eagles20.7%fair odds 4.84
Expected goals2.20 – 1.26total 3.45
Likeliest score2–19.6%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

NEC Nijmegen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

GO Ahead Eagles

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

NEC Nijmegen ↓ · GO Ahead Eagles →0123456+
03.63.52.51.00.30.10.0
16.59.25.52.30.70.20.0
27.69.66.02.50.80.20.1
35.67.04.41.80.60.10.0
43.13.92.41.00.30.10.0
51.31.71.10.40.10.00.0
6+0.70.90.60.20.10.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NEC Nijmegen goals, columns GO Ahead Eagles goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–19.6%10.42
  • 1–19.2%10.86
  • 2–07.6%13.09
  • 3–17.0%14.24
  • 1–06.5%15.39
  • 2–26.0%16.60
  • 3–05.6%17.89
  • 1–25.5%18.21
  • 3–24.4%22.68
  • 4–13.9%25.95

Winning margin

19.0% NEC Nijmegen by 3+ fair 5.26
17.6% NEC Nijmegen by 2 fair 5.69
21.7% NEC Nijmegen by 1 fair 4.61
21.1% Draw fair 4.75
12.2% GO Ahead Eagles by 1 fair 8.20
5.8% GO Ahead Eagles by 2 fair 17.38
2.7% GO Ahead Eagles by 3+ fair 36.79

Goal distribution

Total goals

4%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+

NEC Nijmegen goals

11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
18%4+

GO Ahead Eagles goals

28%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
NEC Nijmegen win 58.3% 56.8% +1.5 pp
Draw 21.1% 22.1% -1.0 pp
GO Ahead Eagles win 20.7% 21.2% -0.5 pp
Over 2.5 67.0% 63.3% +3.7 pp
Both teams score 64.0% 61.5% +2.5 pp
Expected goals NEC Nijmegen 2.20 2.06 +0.13
Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles 1.26 1.20 +0.06

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • NEC Nijmegen win58.3%1.72
  • Draw21.1%4.75
  • GO Ahead Eagles win20.7%4.84
  • Double chance NEC Nijmegen or draw79.3%1.26
  • Double chance NEC Nijmegen or GO Ahead Eagles78.9%1.27
  • Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw41.7%2.40
  • Draw no bet NEC Nijmegen73.8%1.35
  • Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles26.2%3.82

Goals

  • Over 0.596.4%1.04
  • Over 1.586.3%1.16
  • Over 2.567.0%1.49
  • Over 3.545.3%2.21
  • Over 4.526.5%3.77
  • Under 1.513.7%7.32
  • Under 2.533.0%3.03
  • Under 3.554.7%1.83

Both teams to score

  • Yes64.0%1.56
  • No36.0%2.78
  • Yes and over 2.554.8%1.82
  • NEC Nijmegen win and yes33.4%2.99
  • Draw and yes17.4%5.74
  • GO Ahead Eagles win and yes13.2%7.59

Team goals

  • NEC Nijmegen over 0.588.9%1.13
  • NEC Nijmegen over 1.564.4%1.55
  • NEC Nijmegen over 2.537.6%2.66
  • GO Ahead Eagles over 0.571.5%1.40
  • GO Ahead Eagles over 1.535.7%2.80
  • GO Ahead Eagles over 2.513.3%7.53
  • NEC Nijmegen clean sheet28.5%3.51
  • GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet11.1%8.98
  • NEC Nijmegen win to nil24.8%4.02
  • GO Ahead Eagles win to nil7.5%13.33

Handicap

  • NEC Nijmegen −1.536.6%2.73
  • NEC Nijmegen −2.519.0%5.26
  • GO Ahead Eagles +1.563.4%1.58
  • GO Ahead Eagles +2.581.0%1.23
  • GO Ahead Eagles −1.58.5%11.80
  • NEC Nijmegen +1.591.5%1.09

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored297 Favourite won51.5% Avg chance given to result41.0% 1X2 Brier0.589 Over 2.5 called right61.6% BTTS called right62.0%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%4238.0%33.3%
40–50%11144.9%45.0%
50–60%7555.2%49.3%
60–70%4064.3%67.5%
70–80%2174.3%85.7%
80%+884.1%87.5%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 239 of 297 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.58910.5824
Avg chance given to result40.9%42.2%
Favourite won51.0%52.7%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 239 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 297 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.