NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
NEC Nijmegen
4th · 56 pts · 33 played
WDDDL
First leg1–1
2–1Full time
GO Ahead Eagles
12th · 38 pts · 33 played
WDDDL
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 25). NEC Nijmegen had 6.9 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 6.9 and had to travel 51 km.
Away travel51 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
NEC Nijmegen58%
Draw21%
GO Ahead Eagles21%
NEC Nijmegen54%
Draw25%
GO Ahead Eagles21%
NEC Nijmegen59%
Draw21%
GO Ahead Eagles20%
NEC Nijmegen50%
Draw23%
GO Ahead Eagles27%
NEC Nijmegen57%
Draw22%
GO Ahead Eagles21%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 64
Team strength
NEC NijmegenGO Ahead Eagles
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
37
AttackIn forecast
29
33
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenGO Ahead Eagles
2.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.61
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
97%
Scored inContext
79%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
16.12
ShotsContext
11.24
6.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.03
40%
On target shareContext
43%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.31
62%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.85
11.27
Shots allowedContext
18.39
5.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.48
2.50
BlocksContext
6.10
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.15
70%
Save rateContext
76%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
423
PassesContext
405
337
Accurate passesContext
328
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.36
FoulsContext
8.85
11.36
Fouls sufferedContext
10.24
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
1.45
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
100%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
17.20
ShotsContext
11.70
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
37%
On target shareContext
43%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
61%
Box shareContext
71%
10%
ConversionContext
17%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.14
10.60
Shots allowedContext
18.60
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.57
BlocksContext
5.50
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
75%
Save rateContext
78%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
406
PassesContext
386
323
Accurate passesContext
305
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.95
11.80
FoulsContext
7.60
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km321 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel51 km242 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 51 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 321 km | 242 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 79.2 | 83.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
3P. Sandler
2B. Pereira
11B. Önal
6D. Nejašmić
23K. Sano
25S. Ouaissa
20N. Lebreton
10T. Chery
30B. Linssen
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
20E. Waayers
4J. Kramer
26J. Dirksen
2A. Sampsted
7J. Breum
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
16V. Edvardsen
10S. Tengstedt
9S. Sigurðarson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
1.81points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-3
- Scored
- 2.44
- Conceded
- 1.50
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
0.81points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-7-7
- Scored
- 1.19
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Telstar | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 HL 2–4 A |
| Twente | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Feyenoord | D 1–1 HW 4–2 A | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Excelsior | W 2–0 AW 5–0 H | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | W 3–2 AL 3–5 H | L 1–4 HL 1–2 A |
| FC Volendam | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 HL 2–3 A | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Ajax | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Utrecht | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Heracles | W 4–1 HW 4–1 A | W 4–0 HL 2–4 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | W 5–0 HW 2–0 A |
| NAC Breda | W 4–3 AW 3–0 H | W 6–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 55 of 96 · 1.72 per game | 37 of 96 · 1.16 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 NEC Nijmegen wins3 draws2 GO Ahead Eagles wins
Goals per game1.20 – 2.40
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 5 Oct 2025GO Ahead Eagles1–1NEC Nijmegen
- 9 Mar 2025NEC Nijmegen2–3GO Ahead Eagles
- 7 Dec 2024GO Ahead Eagles5–0NEC Nijmegen
- 28 Jan 2024GO Ahead Eagles2–2NEC Nijmegen
- 26 Nov 2023NEC Nijmegen1–1GO Ahead Eagles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.27 | 1.61 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 3.85 | 3.15 | 3.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 97% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 61% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 58% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 82% | 58% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 3% | 21% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| NEC Nijmegen | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.20 | 3.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.65 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.85 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 11.15 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 19/31 | 85% 28/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 17/31 | 70% 23/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 14/31 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 1.61 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 1.45 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.06 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 14/33 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 14/33 | 21% 7/33 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.78 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.22 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 11.00 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 2.00 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.36league 3.11
Red cards0.28league 0.17
Cards 5+33%league 26%
Fouls22.0league 21.2
Penalties0.19league 0.21
Home wins48%league 45%
NEC Nijmegen5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W28 Sep 25H · AZ Alkmaar2–11
- L9 Mar 25H · GO Ahead Eagles2–33
- W24 Aug 24H · PEC Zwolle1–01
- D14 Jan 24A · Feyenoord2–22
- L1 Oct 23H · Vitesse1–32
GO Ahead Eagles4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L18 Oct 25A · PSV Eindhoven1–21
- W9 Mar 25A · NEC Nijmegen3–21
- D15 Dec 24A · Utrecht3–33
- L3 Dec 23H · Twente1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen33 games · scored 75 · conceded 52
8
6
0-15
9
7
16-30
11
17
31-45
15
10
46-60
14
6
61-75
18
6
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles32 games · scored 51 · conceded 51
10
5
0-15
4
7
16-30
9
13
31-45
8
9
46-60
9
7
61-75
11
10
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
