NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
NEC Nijmegen
3rd · 49 pts · 27 played
DDLWW
First leg2–3
2–2Full time
Heerenveen
8th · 40 pts · 27 played
WLWWW
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for NEC Nijmegen. NEC Nijmegen had 7.7 days of rest, Heerenveen 7.7 and had to travel 124 km.
Away travel124 kmRest days7.7 · 7.7Matches / 14d2 · 1
NEC Nijmegen58%
Draw21%
Heerenveen21%
NEC Nijmegen51%
Draw25%
Heerenveen24%
NEC Nijmegen58%
Draw21%
Heerenveen21%
NEC Nijmegen50%
Draw23%
Heerenveen27%
NEC Nijmegen57%
Draw22%
Heerenveen21%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 35
Team strength
NEC NijmegenHeerenveen
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
37
AttackIn forecast
36
33
DefenceIn forecast
40
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenHeerenveen
2.48
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.74
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.76
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
96%
Scored inContext
81%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
16.15
ShotsContext
14.56
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.42
42%
On target shareContext
36%
9.96
Shots in the boxContext
9.58
62%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.45
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.33
Shots allowedContext
12.11
4.96
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.74
2.44
BlocksContext
3.18
3.42
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.15
68%
Save rateContext
66%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
424
PassesContext
429
338
Accurate passesContext
344
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.30
FoulsContext
10.81
11.52
Fouls sufferedContext
9.85
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
1.52
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.91
Goals minus xGContext
+0.59
100%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.60
ShotsContext
13.00
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
39%
On target shareContext
37%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
61%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.29
10.90
Shots allowedContext
15.60
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
2.63
BlocksContext
3.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
65%
Save rateContext
71%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
427
PassesContext
434
335
Accurate passesContext
353
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.70
FoulsContext
9.70
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
7.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km103 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heerenveen
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel124 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 124 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 103 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.3 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
22J. Cillessen(G)
15J. Willems
4A. Kaplan
3P. Sandler
11B. Önal
23K. Sano
6D. Nejašmić
25S. Ouaissa
20N. Lebreton
10T. Chery
30B. Linssen
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
15M. Egbring
6J. van Overeem
16M. Linday
9D. Vente
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
18L. Nordås
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heerenveen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Heerenveen-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
2.00points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-3
- Scored
- 2.69
- Conceded
- 1.54
Heerenveen · Away
1.31points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-6
- Scored
- 1.54
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | W 3–2 AL 3–5 H | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H |
| FC Volendam | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 HL 2–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Ajax | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Utrecht | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Heracles | W 4–1 HW 4–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A |
| NAC Breda | W 4–3 AW 3–0 H | D 3–3 H |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Feyenoord | W 4–2 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Twente | D 3–3 H | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Excelsior | W 5–0 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 49 of 78 · 1.88 per game | 37 of 78 · 1.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 NEC Nijmegen wins1 draws2 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 21 Sep 2025Heerenveen3–2NEC Nijmegen
- 27 Apr 2025Heerenveen1–0NEC Nijmegen
- 19 Oct 2024NEC Nijmegen3–0Heerenveen
- 7 Oct 2023Heerenveen1–1NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.48 | 1.74 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 4.15 | 3.37 | 3.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 96% | |
| Over 2.5 | 81% | 74% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 81% | 70% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 19% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.60 | 3.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.62 | 5.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.46 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 10.08 | 10.46 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 17/26 | 81% 21/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 15/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 14/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 1.59 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.96 | 1.48 | |
| Match total | 3.85 | 3.07 | 3.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 12/27 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 12/27 | 19% 5/27 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 10.00 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.70 | 3.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.43league 3.24
Red cards0.29league 0.17
Cards 5+17%league 28%
Fouls18.7league 21.4
Penalties0.29league 0.23
Home wins43%league 45%
NEC Nijmegen6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W24 Jan 26H · PEC Zwolle2–11
- W18 May 25A · Heracles2–11
- W15 Mar 25A · Utrecht1–03
- L8 Feb 25A · Groningen1–20
- D15 Dec 24H · Sparta Rotterdam1–10
Heerenveen4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W20 Dec 25A · Heracles3–01
- D24 Oct 25H · NAC Breda3–31
- W4 Apr 25H · Willem II3–10
- W28 Oct 23H · Heracles3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen27 games · scored 67 · conceded 45
8
5
0-15
7
6
16-30
10
13
31-45
14
9
46-60
13
6
61-75
15
6
76-90
Heerenveen27 games · scored 47 · conceded 44
2
4
0-15
7
9
16-30
10
6
31-45
8
8
46-60
9
6
61-75
11
11
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 16
3
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
5
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
1
0-15
4
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
