NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were slight favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 32). NEC Nijmegen had 13.3 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 13.9 and had to travel 52 km.
Away travel52 kmRest days13.3 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
NEC Nijmegen20%
Draw23%
PSV Eindhoven58%
NEC Nijmegen20%
Draw24%
PSV Eindhoven55%
NEC Nijmegen20%
Draw23%
PSV Eindhoven58%
NEC Nijmegen15%
Draw20%
PSV Eindhoven65%
NEC Nijmegen20%
Draw24%
PSV Eindhoven55%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 84
Team strength
NEC Nijmegen
PSV Eindhoven
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
74
37
AttackIn forecast
60
33
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenPSV Eindhoven
3.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
2.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.69
Goals minus xGContext
+1.27
100%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
18.00
ShotsContext
20.75
9.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
50%
On target shareContext
34%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.00
72%
Box shareContext
63%
19%
ConversionContext
15%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.75
Shots allowedContext
13.25
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
1.75
BlocksContext
4.50
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
79%
Save rateContext
72%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
495
PassesContext
565
410
Accurate passesContext
491
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.26
Team ratingContext
7.14
12.25
FoulsContext
10.25
14.25
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.40
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.01
xGVia Att/Def
2.51
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.89
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.90
ShotsContext
22.50
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.90
42%
On target shareContext
40%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
15.10
70%
Box shareContext
68%
17%
ConversionContext
15%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.50
Shots allowedContext
9.10
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.60
BlocksContext
2.78
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
83%
Save rateContext
69%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
66%
431
PassesContext
569
345
Accurate passesContext
495
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.14
Team ratingContext
7.36
11.50
FoulsContext
9.40
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
7.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest13.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km188 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel52 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 13.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 52 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 188 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
4A. Kaplan
2B. Pereira
7V. Misidjan
23K. Sano
71D. Proper
25S. Ouaissa
10T. Chery
30B. Linssen
34Y. El Kachati
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
8S. Dest
4A. Obispo
25K. Sildillia
34I. Saibari
23J. Veerman
22J. Schouten
20G. Til
7R. van Bommel
9R. Pepi
5I. Perišić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- PSV Eindhoven+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
PSV Eindhoven · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 NEC Nijmegen wins1 draws2 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 1 Feb 2025NEC Nijmegen3–3PSV Eindhoven
- 14 Sep 2024PSV Eindhoven2–0NEC Nijmegen
- 16 Sep 2023PSV Eindhoven4–0NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 4.25 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| NEC Nijmegen | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 4.25 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 7.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.25 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 12.50 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.25 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 11.44 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 84 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.37league 3.40
Red cards0.13league 0.17
Cards 5+27%league 34%
Fouls21.5league 22.5
Penalties0.21league 0.17
Home wins43%league 51%
NEC Nijmegen4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W9 Aug 25H · Excelsior5–01
- D3 May 25H · Willem II1–12
- L23 Feb 25A · Twente0–22
- D21 Oct 23H · Almere City FC1–12
PSV Eindhoven10 with this referee
Record9-1-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W23 Aug 25H · Groningen4–20
- W11 May 25A · Feyenoord3–23
- W24 Apr 25A · Twente3–13
- W8 Mar 25H · Heerenveen2–12
- D11 Jan 25H · AZ Alkmaar2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen4 games · scored 14 · conceded 4
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
PSV Eindhoven4 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 25 · conceded 8
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
6
2
46-60
7
61-75
7
2
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 34 · conceded 11
5
3
0-15
5
1
16-30
7
1
31-45
9
1
46-60
5
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
