NEC Nijmegen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
NEC Nijmegen19.9%fair odds 5.03
Draw22.5%fair odds 4.44
PSV Eindhoven57.6%fair odds 1.74
Expected goals1.10 – 1.99total 3.08
Likeliest score1–110.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| NEC Nijmegen ↓ · PSV Eindhoven → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NEC Nijmegen goals, columns PSV Eindhoven goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%9.53
- 1–29.9%10.09
- 0–29.1%11.04
- 0–18.6%11.66
- 1–36.6%15.21
- 0–36.0%16.65
- 2–15.5%18.32
- 2–25.4%18.42
- 0–05.1%19.59
- 1–04.5%22.31
Winning margin
2.2%
NEC Nijmegen by 3+
fair 45.42
5.4%
NEC Nijmegen by 2
fair 18.64
12.3%
NEC Nijmegen by 1
fair 8.11
22.5%
Draw
fair 4.44
22.8%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 4.38
17.7%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 5.65
17.0%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 5.87
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
NEC Nijmegen goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
PSV Eindhoven goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen win | 19.9% | 20.4% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 22.5% | 24.4% | -1.8 pp |
| PSV Eindhoven win | 57.6% | 55.2% | +2.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 52.8% | +6.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.0% | 53.2% | +4.7 pp |
| Expected goals NEC Nijmegen | 1.10 | 1.00 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 1.99 | 1.79 | +0.20 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- NEC Nijmegen win19.9%5.03
- Draw22.5%4.44
- PSV Eindhoven win57.6%1.74
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or draw42.4%2.36
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or PSV Eindhoven77.5%1.29
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw80.1%1.25
- Draw no bet NEC Nijmegen25.7%3.89
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven74.3%1.35
Goals
- Over 0.594.9%1.05
- Over 1.581.8%1.22
- Over 2.559.5%1.68
- Over 3.537.2%2.69
- Over 4.519.9%5.02
- Under 1.518.2%5.51
- Under 2.540.5%2.47
- Under 3.562.8%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes58.0%1.72
- No42.0%2.38
- Yes and over 2.547.5%2.11
- NEC Nijmegen win and yes11.3%8.84
- Draw and yes17.4%5.74
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes29.2%3.42
Team goals
- NEC Nijmegen over 0.566.5%1.50
- NEC Nijmegen over 1.529.9%3.34
- NEC Nijmegen over 2.59.9%10.14
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.586.3%1.16
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.559.1%1.69
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.532.0%3.12
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet13.7%7.31
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet33.5%2.99
- NEC Nijmegen win to nil8.6%11.66
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil28.3%3.53
Handicap
- NEC Nijmegen −1.57.6%13.22
- NEC Nijmegen −2.52.2%45.42
- PSV Eindhoven +1.592.4%1.08
- PSV Eindhoven +2.597.8%1.02
- PSV Eindhoven −1.534.8%2.88
- NEC Nijmegen +1.565.2%1.53
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored35
Favourite won60.0%
Avg chance given to result45.2%
1X2 Brier0.525
Over 2.5 called right65.7%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.5% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 44.3% | 36.4% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 55.3% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 63.2% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 76.3% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 13 of 35 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4744 | 0.4656 |
| Avg chance given to result | 47.6% | 50.0% |
| Favourite won | 61.5% | 69.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 13 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 35 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.