Newcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Newcastle were clear favourites.
Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Hull City. Newcastle had 4.8 days of rest, Hull City 7 and had to travel 160 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel160 kmRest days4.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Newcastle60%
Draw22%
Hull City18%
Newcastle68%
Draw19%
Hull City13%
Newcastle62%
Draw21%
Hull City17%
Newcastle53%
Draw24%
Hull City23%
Newcastle60%
Draw21%
Hull City18%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)
17°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 25 km/h
- Humidity 54%
RefereeTony Harrington
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 88
Team strength
Newcastle
Hull City
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
37
61
AttackIn forecast
37
61
DefenceIn forecast
50
61
Form indexContext
82
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHull City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NewcastleHull City
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.78
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
100%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
9.75
ShotsContext
9.75
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
33%
On target shareContext
39%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
57%
Box shareContext
49%
18%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.50
19.00
Shots allowedContext
14.25
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
7.75
BlocksContext
4.75
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
88%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
29%
390
PassesContext
256
318
Accurate passesContext
179
82%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.96
14.25
FoulsContext
10.00
13.75
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
3.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.50
ShotsContext
10.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
35%
On target shareContext
37%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
62%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.44
OffsidesContext
1.57
16.50
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
5.80
BlocksContext
3.80
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
71%
Save rateContext
80%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
423
PassesContext
275
348
Accurate passesContext
185
82%
Pass accuracyContext
67%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.30
FoulsContext
9.50
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Newcastle
DWDL
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km262 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 5 pts vs 3.7 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected
Hull City
WWDD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel160 km498 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 82 · 8 pts vs 3.7 for an average club · +5.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Newcastle |
Hull City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Premier League 2026-2027, 14 Sep | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 160 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 262 km | 498 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 23.2 | 22 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Newcastle
Confirmed XI
21L. Horníček(G)
3L. Hall
4S. Botman
12M. Thiaw
67L. Miley
28J. Willock
14Sean Steur
11H. Barnes
9Y. Wissa
23J. Murphy
20M. Fernandez-Pardo
Hull City
Confirmed XI
19K. Tzolakis(G)
3R. Giles
22L. Herrington
15J. Egan
6S. Ajayi
2L. Coyle
7B. Thomas
27R. Slater
25M. Crooks
10M. Belloumi
9O. McBurnie
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Newcastle
Absences are shown before kick-off
Hull City
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Newcastle-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Hull City+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Newcastle · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Hull City · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Newcastle | Hull City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.75 | 1.75 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 25% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Newcastle | Hull City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.75 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 25% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 25% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Newcastle | Hull City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 9.00 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 3.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 0.75 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Newcastle | Hull City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 6.22 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 10.55 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tony Harrington 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.55league 3.81
Red cards0.14league 0.12
Cards 5+27%league 38%
Fouls21.2league 23.2
Penalties0.26league 0.19
Home wins41%league 33%
Newcastle5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L25 May 25H · Everton0–11
- W27 Apr 24H · Sheffield Utd5–10
- D2 Apr 24H · Everton1–10
- W19 Oct 22H · Everton1–02
- W20 Apr 22H · Crystal Palace1–01
Hull City4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D15 Sep 23H · Coventry1–12
- L19 Mar 22H · Luton1–32
- W26 Feb 22A · Peterborough3–00
- W20 Nov 21H · Birmingham2–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Newcastle4 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Hull City4 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Hull City10 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
