Newcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 75). Newcastle had 91 days of rest, Liverpool 91 and had to travel 195 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel195 kmRest days91 · 91Matches / 14d0 · 0
Newcastle38%
Draw24%
Liverpool38%
Newcastle38%
Draw26%
Liverpool36%
Newcastle39%
Draw24%
Liverpool36%
Newcastle31%
Draw24%
Liverpool45%
Newcastle38%
Draw25%
Liverpool37%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)
20°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 14 km/h
- Humidity 44%
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 142
Team strength
Newcastle
Liverpool
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
84
61
AttackIn forecast
85
61
DefenceIn forecast
84
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLiverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NewcastleLiverpool
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.10
ShotsContext
13.80
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
39%
On target shareContext
33%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
64%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.29
OffsidesContext
2.33
15.70
Shots allowedContext
13.70
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.70
BlocksContext
3.50
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
66%
Save rateContext
64%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
420
PassesContext
461
342
Accurate passesContext
385
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.84
9.90
FoulsContext
11.00
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Newcastle
Rest91 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Liverpool
Rest91 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel195 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Newcastle |
Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 91Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May | 91Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 195 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Newcastle
Confirmed XI
21L. Horníček(G)
3L. Hall
4S. Botman
12M. Thiaw
37A. Dedić
67L. Miley
14Sean Steur
11H. Barnes
9Y. Wissa
19A. Elanga
10W. Osula
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5J. Jacquet
30J. Frimpong
38R. Gravenberch
8D. Szoboszlai
18C. Gakpo
7F. Wirtz
73R. Ngumoha
9A. Isak
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Newcastle
Absences are shown before kick-off
Liverpool
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Newcastle-1.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Liverpool+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Newcastle · Home
No home games yet this season.
Liverpool · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
0 Newcastle wins1 draws9 Liverpool wins
Goals per game1.10 – 2.60
Over 2.570%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets0% · 30%
- 31 Jan 2026Liverpool4–1Newcastle
- 25 Aug 2025Newcastle2–3Liverpool
- 26 Feb 2025Liverpool2–0Newcastle
- 4 Dec 2024Newcastle3–3Liverpool
- 1 Jan 2024Liverpool4–2Newcastle
- 27 Aug 2023Newcastle1–2Liverpool
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Newcastle | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 60% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Newcastle | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.20 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Newcastle | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 8.29 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 3.14 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Newcastle | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 10.20 | 8.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.90 | 3.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 142 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.01league 2.75
Red cards0.13league 0.13
Cards 5+45%league 13%
Fouls21.1league 24.1
Penalties0.20league 0.13
Home wins48%league 88%
Newcastle16 with this referee
Record9-1-6
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- L28 Feb 26H · Everton2–32
- W6 Dec 25H · Burnley2–12
- L9 Nov 25A · Brentford1–33
- L18 Jan 25H · Bournemouth1–41
- W21 Dec 24A · Ipswich4–00
Liverpool16 with this referee
Record12-3-1
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.4
Pens for · against3 · 1
- D3 Dec 25H · Sunderland1–11
- W1 Nov 25H · Aston Villa2–02
- W20 Apr 25A · Leicester1–02
- W25 Aug 24H · Brentford2–02
- W4 Apr 24H · Sheffield Utd3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NewcastleLiverpoolNewcastle10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
4
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
1
6
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
