Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 39). Nice had 13 days of rest, Lyon 13.1 and had to travel 293 km.
Away travel293 kmRest days13 · 13.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nice31%
Draw27%
Lyon42%
Nice31%
Draw27%
Lyon42%
Nice31%
Draw27%
Lyon42%
Nice24%
Draw25%
Lyon50%
Nice31%
Draw27%
Lyon42%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 93
Team strength
Nice
Lyon
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
26
AttackIn forecast
55
35
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceLyon
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
86%
Scored inContext
100%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
71%
12.57
ShotsContext
11.86
4.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.43
34%
On target shareContext
37%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
8.43
60%
Box shareContext
73%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.17
13.14
Shots allowedContext
12.43
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
3.29
BlocksContext
5.14
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
65%
Save rateContext
75%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
443
PassesContext
478
376
Accurate passesContext
416
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.01
12.29
FoulsContext
16.00
13.71
Fouls sufferedContext
14.86
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
80%
11.30
ShotsContext
12.90
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
31%
On target shareContext
35%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
61%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.57
14.10
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
4.10
BlocksContext
4.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
63%
Save rateContext
86%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
424
PassesContext
504
353
Accurate passesContext
442
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.09
12.40
FoulsContext
14.50
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km26 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lyon
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel293 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 13.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 293 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 26 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
4Dante
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
33A. Mendy
26M. Bard
24C. Vanhoutte
6H. Boudaoui
92J. Clauss
7J. Boga
10S. Diop
25M. Cho
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
21R. Kluivert
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
8C. Tolisso
23T. Morton
11M. Fofana
10P. Šulc
7A. Karabec
20M. Satriano
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lyon+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.75
Lyon · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Nice | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Nice wins2 draws4 Lyon wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.63
Over 2.538%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 50%
- 9 Mar 2025Nice0–2Lyon
- 1 Dec 2024Lyon4–1Nice
- 16 Feb 2024Lyon1–0Nice
- 27 Aug 2023Nice0–0Lyon
- 3 Jun 2023Nice3–1Lyon
- 11 Nov 2022Lyon1–1Nice
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 29% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 71% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Nice | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.78 | 0.56 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.89 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 44% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 22% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 78% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 6.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.17 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 10.17 | 11.15 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 4.71 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Nice | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 10.40 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.40 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 93 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.45league 3.72
Red cards0.25league 0.33
Cards 5+32%league 36%
Fouls24.1league 24.6
Penalties0.35league 0.52
Home wins38%league 53%
Nice12 with this referee
Record6-1-5
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- L31 Aug 25A · LE Havre1–34
- L29 Mar 25A · Monaco1–25
- W1 Mar 25A · Saint Etienne3–11
- W3 Jan 25H · Rennes3–24
- D6 Oct 24H · Paris Saint Germain1–11
Lyon13 with this referee
Record4-3-6
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 3
Reds2
- L2 Feb 25A · Marseille2–31
- D1 Nov 24A · Lille1–11
- W7 Apr 24A · Nantes3–12
- L3 Mar 24H · Lens0–31
- L13 Aug 23A · Strasbourg1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice7 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Lyon7 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 14 · conceded 5
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
