Nice
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Nice30.8%fair odds 3.24
Draw26.7%fair odds 3.75
Lyon42.5%fair odds 2.35
Expected goals1.24 – 1.49total 2.73
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lyon
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Nice ↓ · Lyon → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Nice goals, columns Lyon goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.88
- 0–19.1%11.00
- 1–29.0%11.13
- 2–17.5%13.41
- 1–07.4%13.45
- 0–27.3%13.78
- 0–07.2%13.97
- 2–25.6%17.97
- 2–05.0%20.01
- 1–34.5%22.37
Winning margin
4.4%
Nice by 3+
fair 22.78
8.9%
Nice by 2
fair 11.26
17.6%
Nice by 1
fair 5.69
26.7%
Draw
fair 3.75
21.3%
Lyon by 1
fair 4.69
12.9%
Lyon by 2
fair 7.75
8.3%
Lyon by 3+
fair 12.12
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Nice goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Lyon goals
22%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nice win | 30.8% | 31.4% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 26.7% | 27.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Lyon win | 42.5% | 41.6% | +0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 50.4% | +1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.7% | 55.0% | +0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Nice | 1.24 | 1.23 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Lyon | 1.49 | 1.46 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Nice win30.8%3.24
- Draw26.7%3.75
- Lyon win42.5%2.35
- Double chance Nice or draw57.5%1.74
- Double chance Nice or Lyon73.3%1.36
- Double chance Lyon or draw69.2%1.45
- Draw no bet Nice42.1%2.38
- Draw no bet Lyon57.9%1.73
Goals
- Over 0.592.8%1.08
- Over 1.576.3%1.31
- Over 2.551.4%1.95
- Over 3.529.3%3.42
- Over 4.514.2%7.06
- Under 1.523.7%4.22
- Under 2.548.6%2.06
- Under 3.570.7%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes55.7%1.80
- No44.3%2.26
- Yes and over 2.543.0%2.33
- Nice win and yes15.5%6.44
- Draw and yes19.5%5.12
- Lyon win and yes20.6%4.85
Team goals
- Nice over 0.571.0%1.41
- Nice over 1.535.1%2.85
- Nice over 2.512.9%7.76
- Lyon over 0.577.5%1.29
- Lyon over 1.544.0%2.28
- Lyon over 2.518.9%5.29
- Nice clean sheet22.5%4.45
- Lyon clean sheet29.0%3.45
- Nice win to nil15.3%6.52
- Lyon win to nil21.8%4.58
Handicap
- Nice −1.513.3%7.54
- Nice −2.54.4%22.78
- Lyon +1.586.7%1.15
- Lyon +2.595.6%1.05
- Lyon −1.521.2%4.73
- Nice +1.578.8%1.27
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored64
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result43.8%
1X2 Brier0.546
Over 2.5 called right56.3%
BTTS called right54.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 10 | 38.2% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 22 | 44.6% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 13 | 54.1% | 46.2% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 65.1% | 72.7% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 75.9% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 88.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 37 of 64 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6254 | 0.5951 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.9% | 40.7% |
| Favourite won | 40.5% | 43.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 37 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 64 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.