Premier League Gameweek 7 Sun, Oct 18 2026 · 16:30 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
Nottingham Forest
0–1 Full time · HT 0–0 xG 0.72 – 1.09
Arsenal
  • 80’ C. Madueke
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Madueke goal decides it for Arsenal

Arsenal entered as favourites and won 1–0 through a Madueke goal. Arsenal finished with the higher xG (1.09 vs 0.72). On the chances created, Nottingham Forest deserved more: 1.0 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Nottingham Forest20%
Draw22%
Arsenal ✓58%

Model vs reality

Nottingham Forest goals
0
Model 1.15 · xG 0.72
Arsenal goals
1
Model 2.08 · xG 1.09
Total goals
1
Model 3.23 · xG 1.81
Score 0–1
8%
Most likely 1–1 (10%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 63%
Both scored
No
Model 60%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchD. RiceArsenal · 1 assist
7.7
  • RefereeMichael Oliver
  • CoachesOliver Glasner · Mikel Arteta
  • VenueThe City Ground
  • Table before kick-offNottingham Forest 18th · Arsenal 3rd
  • Weather at kick-off11°C · Drizzle · wind 14 km/h · 0.1 mm rain

Timeline

  1. N. WilliamsYellow card · Foul
    17’
  2. ⇄ C. MaduekeFor E. Eze
    45’
  3. Half time · 0–0
  4. C. MaduekeYellow card · Foul
    53’
  5. ⇄ J. TimberFor B. White
    66’
  6. ⇄ V. GyökeresFor K. Havertz
    66’
  7. ⇄ Mikel MerinoFor Bruno Guimarães
    66’
  8. ⇄ A. KalimuendoFor D. Ndoye
    73’
  9. ⇄ I. SangaréFor N. Domínguez
    74’
  10. C. Madueke 0–1Assist D. Rice
    80’
  11. ⇄ C. WoodFor Jair
    85’
  12. ⇄ C. Hudson-OdoiFor J. McAtee
    85’
  13. Full time · 0–1

Team stats

Nottingham Forest14 shots · 8 in box, 6 outside
Arsenal9 shots · 7 in box, 2 outside
Nottingham ForestArsenal
26% Possession 74%
0.72 Expected goals (xG) 1.09
1.04 Expected points (xPts) 1.64
14 Shots 9
2 Shots on target 1
6 Shots off target 5
6 Blocked shots 3
8 Shots inside the box 7
6 Shots outside the box 2
219 Passes 629
69% Pass accuracy 90%
8 Corners 6
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
14 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 1
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
6.48 Team rating 7.08

Line-ups

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

265.6 M. Sels(G)
57.6 Murillo 26.8 O. Diomande 236.8 Jair ↓85’
36.0 N. Williams 216.6 X. Schlager 246.6 J. McAtee ↓85’ 276.4 D. Muñoz
146.1 D. Ndoye ↓73’ 86.2 N. Domínguez ↓74’
196.7 L. Delap
  • 26M. Sels (G)5.6
  • 5Murillo7.6
  • 2O. Diomande6.8
  • 23Jair↓85’6.8
  • 3N. Williams6.0
  • 21X. Schlager6.6
  • 24J. McAtee↓85’6.6
  • 27D. Muñoz6.4
  • 14D. Ndoye↓73’6.1
  • 8N. Domínguez↓74’6.2
  • 19L. Delap6.7

Substitutes used

  • 7C. Hudson-Odoi↑85’6.4
  • 15A. Kalimuendo↑73’6.3
  • 9C. Wood↑85’6.3
  • 6I. Sangaré↑74’6.5

Unused: R. Yates, John Victor, L. Netz, N. Milenković, T. Aina

Coach: Oliver Glasner

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

16.9 David Raya(G)
337.2 R. Calafiori 67.5 Gabriel Magalhães 157.4 E. Konsa 47.3 B. White ↓66’
396.8 Bruno Guimarães ↓66’ 417.7★ D. Rice A
106.7 E. Eze ↓45’ 87.0 M. Ødegaard 76.5 B. Saka
296.3 K. Havertz ↓66’
  • 1David Raya (G)6.9
  • 33R. Calafiori7.2
  • 6Gabriel Magalhães7.5
  • 15E. Konsa7.4
  • 4B. White↓66’7.3
  • 39Bruno Guimarães↓66’6.8
  • 41D. Rice ★A7.7
  • 10E. Eze↓45’6.7
  • 8M. Ødegaard7.0
  • 7B. Saka6.5
  • 29K. Havertz↓66’6.3

Substitutes used

  • 12J. Timber↑66’7.1
  • 23Mikel Merino↑66’7.1
  • 14V. Gyökeres↑66’6.6
  • 20C. Madueke↑45’7.4

Unused: Cristhian Mosquera, M. Lewis-Skelly, M. Dowman, Martín Zubimendi, I. Meslier

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Player stats

Top rated
D. RiceArsenal7.7
2nd
MurilloNottingham Forest7.6
3rd
Gabriel MagalhãesArsenal7.5

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Sels G 90 0 0 0 sv 0 47% 34 0 0 0/0 0/0 5.6
Murillo D 90 0 0 3 (1) 2 79% 34 2 1 1/1 0/0 7.6
O. Diomande D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 18 3 1 0/0 0/0 6.8
Jair D 85 0 0 0 (0) 1 87% 15 0 0 1/1 1/0 6.8
N. Williams D 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 70% 23 1 2 0/0 2/2 6.0
X. Schlager M 90 0 0 1 (0) 2 64% 14 7 1 0/0 2/1 6.6
J. McAtee M 85 0 0 2 (0) 2 75% 24 2 0 0/0 1/0 6.6
D. Muñoz D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 86% 14 2 0 0/0 2/0 6.4
D. Ndoye F 73 0 0 2 (0) 0 83% 6 0 0 0/0 1/1 6.1
N. Domínguez M 74 0 0 0 (0) 0 70% 10 3 1 1/1 1/1 6.2
L. Delap F 90 0 0 4 (1) 1 64% 14 1 0 2/3 2/1 6.7
C. Hudson-Odoi F 5 0 0 0 (0) 1 60% 5 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.4
A. Kalimuendo F 17 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.3
C. Wood F 5 0 0 1 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
I. Sangaré M 16 0 0 0 (0) 0 63% 8 1 1 0/0 2/0 6.5

Arsenal

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
David Raya G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 70% 23 0 0 0/0 0/2 6.9
R. Calafiori D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 95% 42 0 2 0/0 0/0 7.2
Gabriel Magalhães D 90 0 0 2 (0) 1 96% 73 2 1 0/0 0/2 7.5
E. Konsa D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 98% 80 1 2 0/0 0/2 7.4
B. White D 66 0 0 0 (0) 0 87% 55 0 0 0/0 0/1 7.3
Bruno Guimarães M 66 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 56 2 0 4/4 0/0 6.8
D. Rice M 90 0 1 1 (0) 3 94% 98 0 0 0/0 1/0 7.7
E. Eze M 45 0 0 0 (0) 0 69% 13 0 0 0/0 1/2 6.7
M. Ødegaard M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 91% 76 0 0 1/1 1/0 7.0
B. Saka F 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 74% 35 4 1 1/3 1/3 6.5
K. Havertz M 66 0 0 2 (0) 0 80% 15 0 0 0/0 2/0 6.3
J. Timber D 24 0 0 0 (0) 1 88% 16 0 1 0/1 0/0 7.1
Mikel Merino M 24 0 0 1 (0) 0 86% 22 0 0 0/0 0/2 7.1
V. Gyökeres F 24 0 0 1 (0) 1 63% 8 0 0 0/2 1/0 6.6
C. Madueke F 45 1 0 2 (1) 0 94% 17 0 0 0/0 1/0 7.4

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.