Nottingham Forest
Attack−34%
Defense risk+30%
Our take
Arsenal were slight favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 71). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest were without M. Gibbs-White and N. Milenković. Arsenal were without Martín Zubimendi and W. Saliba. Nottingham Forest had 7.1 days of rest, Arsenal 4.9 and had to travel 175 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel175 kmRest days7.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Nottingham Forest20%
Draw22%
Arsenal58%
Nottingham Forest19%
Draw24%
Arsenal57%
Nottingham Forest20%
Draw22%
Arsenal58%
Nottingham Forest15%
Draw19%
Arsenal66%
Nottingham Forest20%
Draw23%
Arsenal56%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
11°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 0.1 mm
- Wind 14 km/h
- Humidity 78%
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 200
Team strength
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
94
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
94
68
AttackIn forecast
86
74
DefenceIn forecast
95
49
Form indexContext
92
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArsenal
Attack+10%
Defense risk−5%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestArsenal
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
-0.87
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
50%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
17.67
ShotsContext
12.83
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
22%
On target shareContext
36%
10.83
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
61%
Box shareContext
72%
5%
ConversionContext
13%
2.40
OffsidesContext
4.50
10.83
Shots allowedContext
10.67
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.00
BlocksContext
2.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
68%
Save rateContext
68%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
395
PassesContext
502
315
Accurate passesContext
434
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.06
14.17
FoulsContext
10.50
12.17
Fouls sufferedContext
16.17
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
-0.65
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
60%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.40
ShotsContext
14.30
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
26%
On target shareContext
36%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
63%
Box shareContext
72%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
2.11
OffsidesContext
3.89
14.50
Shots allowedContext
10.20
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.63
4.60
BlocksContext
2.70
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
68%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
401
PassesContext
497
323
Accurate passesContext
431
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.05
12.90
FoulsContext
11.60
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
DDWLL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 5 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected
Arsenal
WWLWW
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel175 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 92 · 12 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Premier League 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 4.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 175 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 350 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
5Murillo
2O. Diomande
23Jair
3N. Williams
21X. Schlager
24J. McAtee
27D. Muñoz
14D. Ndoye
8N. Domínguez
19L. Delap
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
6Gabriel Magalhães
15E. Konsa
4B. White
39Bruno Guimarães
41D. Rice
10E. Eze
8M. Ødegaard
7B. Saka
29K. Havertz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.08 goals
Attack line −31.5% · Defence line −21.6% of weighted minutes
- MID M. Gibbs-White Starter 6.98 Att −11.8% Def −6.5%
- DEF N. Milenković Starter 6.92 Def −13.0%
- ATT Igor Jesus Starter 6.70 Att −19.7%
- DEF N. Savona Rotation 6.78 Def −2.0%
Arsenal
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −25.1% · Defence line −20.9% of weighted minutes
- MID Martín Zubimendi Starter 6.93 Att −9.9% Def −5.6%
- DEF W. Saliba Starter 6.92 Def −10.8%
- ATT C. Tzolis Starter 6.86 Att −15.2%
- DEF P. Hincapié Rotation 6.91 Def −4.5%
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Arsenal+0.4 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Arsenal · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Nottingham Forest | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Aston Villa | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Leeds | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Nottingham Forest wins2 draws5 Arsenal wins
Goals per game0.38 – 1.88
Over 2.563%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets38% · 63%
- 17 Jan 2026Nottingham Forest0–0Arsenal
- 13 Sep 2025Arsenal3–0Nottingham Forest
- 26 Feb 2025Nottingham Forest0–0Arsenal
- 23 Nov 2024Arsenal3–0Nottingham Forest
- 30 Jan 2024Nottingham Forest1–2Arsenal
- 12 Aug 2023Arsenal2–1Nottingham Forest
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 2.50 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Nottingham Forest | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.30 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 8.84 | 7.83 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 5.00 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Nottingham Forest | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 8.33 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.97
Red cards0.13league 0.19
Cards 5+34%league 44%
Fouls22.6league 23.0
Penalties0.20league 0.16
Home wins44%league 40%
Nottingham Forest14 with this referee
Record5-2-7
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.4
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W22 Mar 26A · Tottenham3–02
- D17 Jan 26H · Arsenal0–01
- L30 Dec 25H · Everton0–21
- L30 Nov 25H · Brighton0–20
- W21 Dec 24A · Brentford2–04
Arsenal22 with this referee
Record15-3-4
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds4
- L11 Apr 26H · Bournemouth1–21
- D17 Jan 26A · Nottingham Forest0–01
- W23 Nov 25H · Tottenham4–11
- W25 Jan 25A · Wolves1–02
- D10 Nov 24A · Chelsea1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest6 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Arsenal5 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
6
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
Arsenal9 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
6
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
