Nottingham Forest vs Leeds – 22 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 22 · 15:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest

0–1Full time

Leeds

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Nottingham Forest had 90 days of rest, Leeds 90 and had to travel 97 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel97 kmRest days90 · 90Matches / 14d0 · 0

Nottingham Forest48%

Draw24%

Leeds28%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.19

Nottingham Forest47%

Draw25%

Leeds27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Nottingham Forest49%

Draw24%

Leeds27%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.18

Nottingham Forest40%

Draw25%

Leeds34%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.34

Nottingham Forest48%

Draw24%

Leeds28%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.22

Over 2.5 54% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

19°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 44%

RefereeRobert Jones

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 143

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

Leeds

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

68 AttackIn forecast 69

74 DefenceIn forecast 77

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

Leeds

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

+0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

90% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.90 ShotsContext 13.30

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

38% On target shareContext 32%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.89

68% Box shareContext 63%

16% ConversionContext 9%

1.70 OffsidesContext 1.86

15.00 Shots allowedContext 12.50

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89

5.10 BlocksContext 4.10

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

78% Save rateContext 67%

47% PossessionIn forecast 49%

396 PassesContext 399

326 Accurate passesContext 312

83% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.99

11.30 FoulsContext 10.80

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest

Rest90 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Leeds

Rest90 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel97 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	90Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May	90Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	97 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

26M. Sels(G)

5Murillo 31N. Milenković 23Jair

3N. Williams 6I. Sangaré 24J. McAtee 34T. Aina

10M. Gibbs-White 14D. Ndoye

11Igor Jesus

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1J. Trafford(G)

5T. Muharemović 15J. Bijol 6J. Rodon

24J. Justin 4E. Ampadu 18A. Stach 2J. Bogle

11B. Aaronson 10H. Wilson

9D. Calvert-Lewin

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Absences are shown before kick-off

Leeds Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest-0.5 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Leeds+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home No home games yet this season.

Leeds · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Nottingham Forest wins0 draws2 Leeds wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.50 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

6 Feb 2026Leeds3–1Nottingham Forest
9 Nov 2025Nottingham Forest3–1Leeds
4 Apr 2023Leeds2–1Nottingham Forest
5 Feb 2023Nottingham Forest1–0Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.85
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	54%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Nottingham Forest	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.20
Conceded per game	1.20	0.90
Match goals	3.10	2.10	2.85
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Nottingham Forest	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	4.56
Corners conceded	4.50	7.67
Match total	9.10	12.23	8.50
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	89% 8/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	78% 7/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.90
Opponent cards	1.70	1.90
Match total	3.20	3.80	2.50
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Jones 143 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.03league 2.50

Red cards0.10league 0.00

Cards 5+42%league 0%

Fouls22.7league 21.0

Penalties0.25league 0.00

Home wins47%league 100%

Nottingham Forest8 with this referee

Record2-2-4 Cards · opp.3.4 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

L27 Dec 25H · Manchester City1–21
D22 Sep 24A · Brighton2–26
L23 Dec 23H · Bournemouth2–32
D18 Sep 23H · Burnley1–12
L4 Apr 23A · Leeds1–24

Leeds9 with this referee

Record3-2-4 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.6 Pens for · against3 · 2

D10 Feb 26A · Chelsea2–24
L23 Nov 25H · Aston Villa1–25
L9 Mar 25A · Portsmouth0–10
W4 Apr 23H · Nottingham Forest2–11
L5 Feb 23A · Nottingham Forest0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.