Premier League Gameweek 6 Sat, Sep 27 2025 · 17:30 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
Nottingham Forest
0–1 Full time · HT 0–1 xG 1.68 – 1.66
Sunderland
  • 38’ O. Alderete
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Alderete goal decides it for Sunderland

Nottingham Forest entered as clear favourites, but Sunderland won 1–0 through a Alderete goal. The chances were even, with xG of 1.68 and 1.66. On the chances created, Nottingham Forest deserved more: 1.4 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Nottingham Forest65%
Draw20%
Sunderland ✓15%

Model vs reality

Nottingham Forest goals
0
Model 2.17 · xG 1.68
Sunderland goals
1
Model 0.96 · xG 1.66
Total goals
1
Model 3.12 · xG 3.34
Score 0–1
4%
Most likely 2–0 (10%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 60%
Both scored
No
Model 55%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchR. RoefsSunderland
9.2
  • RefereeTony Harrington
  • VenueThe City Ground
  • Table before kick-offNottingham Forest 16th · Sunderland 8th

Timeline

  1. N. SadikiYellow card · Foul
    9’
  2. A. MasuakuYellow card · Foul
    31’
  3. N. DomínguezYellow card · Simulation
    36’
  4. N. MilenkovićYellow card · Argument
    38’
  5. O. Alderete 0–1Assist G. Xhaka
    38’
  6. Half time · 0–1
  7. ⇄ M. Gibbs-WhiteFor N. Domínguez
    46’
  8. N. WilliamsYellow card · Foul
    49’
  9. ⇄ B. TraoréFor C. Rigg
    59’
  10. ⇄ L. GeertruidaFor A. Masuaku
    59’
  11. ⇄ Igor JesusFor D. Ndoye
    60’
  12. ⇄ C. Hudson-OdoiFor J. McAtee
    60’
  13. ⇄ O. HutchinsonFor D. Bakwa
    72’
  14. ⇄ D. BallardFor E. Le Fée
    75’
  15. E. AndersonYellow card · Foul
    82’
  16. ⇄ B. BrobbeyFor W. Isidor
    85’
  17. ⇄ S. AdingraFor C. Talbi
    85’
  18. ⇄ A. KalimuendoFor C. Wood
    90’
  19. Full time · 0–1

Team stats

Nottingham Forest22 shots · 15 in box, 7 outside
Sunderland11 shots · 8 in box, 3 outside
Nottingham ForestSunderland
65% Possession 35%
1.68 Expected goals (xG) 1.66
1.40 Expected points (xPts) 1.37
22 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 3
10 Shots off target 5
6 Blocked shots 3
15 Shots inside the box 8
7 Shots outside the box 3
578 Passes 318
90% Pass accuracy 81%
7 Corners 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 6
11 Fouls 6
0 Offsides 1
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
6.80 Team rating 7.27

Line-ups

Nottingham Forest 4-2-3-1

266.9 M. Sels(G)
357.0 O. Zinchenko 47.2 Morato 317.0 N. Milenković 37.2 N. Williams
87.3 E. Anderson 166.6 N. Domínguez ↓46’
146.2 D. Ndoye ↓60’ 246.6 J. McAtee ↓60’ 296.5 D. Bakwa ↓72’
115.6 C. Wood ↓90’
  • 26M. Sels (G)6.9
  • 35O. Zinchenko7.0
  • 4Morato7.2
  • 31N. Milenković7.0
  • 3N. Williams7.2
  • 8E. Anderson7.3
  • 16N. Domínguez↓46’6.6
  • 14D. Ndoye↓60’6.2
  • 24J. McAtee↓60’6.6
  • 29D. Bakwa↓72’6.5
  • 11C. Wood↓90’5.6

Substitutes used

  • 10M. Gibbs-White↑46’6.9
  • 19Igor Jesus↑60’6.9
  • 7C. Hudson-Odoi↑60’6.9
  • 15A. Kalimuendo↑90’
  • 21O. Hutchinson↑72’7.7

Unused: John Victor, I. Sangaré, R. Yates, Jair

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

229.2★ R. Roefs(G)
266.6 A. Masuaku ↓59’ 158.6 O. Alderete 207.2 N. Mukiele 326.6 T. Hume
277.0 N. Sadiki 348.3 G. Xhaka A
286.9 E. Le Fée ↓75’ 116.3 C. Rigg ↓59’ 76.7 C. Talbi ↓85’
186.5 W. Isidor ↓85’
  • 22R. Roefs (G) ★9.2
  • 26A. Masuaku↓59’6.6
  • 15O. Alderete8.6
  • 20N. Mukiele7.2
  • 32T. Hume6.6
  • 27N. Sadiki7.0
  • 34G. XhakaA8.3
  • 28E. Le Fée↓75’6.9
  • 11C. Rigg↓59’6.3
  • 7C. Talbi↓85’6.7
  • 18W. Isidor↓85’6.5

Substitutes used

  • 25B. Traoré↑59’6.3
  • 9B. Brobbey↑85’6.3
  • 5D. Ballard↑75’6.9
  • 6L. Geertruida↑59’6.9
  • 24S. Adingra↑85’6.5

Unused: A. Patterson, L. O'Nien, D. Neil, Eliezer Mayenda

Player stats

Top rated
R. RoefsSunderland9.2
2nd
O. AldereteSunderland8.6
3rd
G. XhakaSunderland8.3

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Sels G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 70% 27 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
O. Zinchenko D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 95% 58 3 0 0/0 0/1 7.0
Morato D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 93% 74 1 0 1/1 0/0 7.2
N. Milenković D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 96% 79 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.0
N. Williams D 90 0 0 0 (0) 4 96% 46 3 0 2/2 2/1 7.2
E. Anderson M 90 0 0 3 (1) 1 88% 78 4 1 0/0 2/2 7.3
N. Domínguez M 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 97% 38 2 0 0/0 2/0 6.6
D. Ndoye F 60 0 0 0 (0) 0 76% 25 1 0 2/2 1/0 6.2
J. McAtee M 60 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 25 1 0 1/1 1/1 6.6
D. Bakwa F 72 0 0 1 (1) 3 83% 36 0 0 1/6 1/1 6.5
C. Wood F 90 0 0 6 (1) 0 77% 13 0 0 0/0 0/0 5.6
M. Gibbs-White M 44 0 0 1 (0) 1 90% 41 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.9
Igor Jesus F 30 0 0 1 (1) 0 82% 11 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
C. Hudson-Odoi F 30 0 0 0 (0) 2 88% 17 0 0 1/2 0/0 6.9
A. Kalimuendo F 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 2 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
O. Hutchinson F 18 0 0 2 (2) 4 75% 8 1 0 1/2 1/0 7.7

Sunderland

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
R. Roefs G 90 0 0 6 sv 2 67% 39 0 0 0/0 0/0 9.2
A. Masuaku D 59 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 24 2 1 1/3 2/0 6.6
O. Alderete D 90 1 0 1 (1) 0 82% 33 0 0 1/1 0/0 8.6
N. Mukiele D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 78% 45 1 1 1/1 1/0 7.2
T. Hume D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 87% 30 0 2 0/0 1/1 6.6
N. Sadiki M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 94% 31 0 0 1/1 1/5 7.0
G. Xhaka M 90 0 1 0 (0) 1 84% 31 2 1 0/0 0/3 8.3
E. Le Fée M 75 0 0 0 (0) 1 90% 20 1 0 0/0 0/1 6.9
C. Rigg M 59 0 0 1 (0) 0 69% 13 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.3
C. Talbi F 85 0 0 1 (0) 0 78% 18 2 0 1/2 0/0 6.7
W. Isidor F 85 0 0 1 (0) 0 78% 9 0 0 1/2 0/0 6.5
B. Traoré F 31 0 0 1 (1) 1 88% 8 1 1 1/2 0/0 6.3
B. Brobbey F 5 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 3 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
D. Ballard D 15 0 0 1 (0) 0 100% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
L. Geertruida D 31 0 0 1 (1) 0 91% 11 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
S. Adingra F 5 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 2 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.