Nottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Nottingham Forest
16th · 5 pts · 5 played
WDLLD
0–1Full time
Sunderland
8th · 8 pts · 5 played
WLWDD
Our take
Nottingham Forest were clear favourites.
Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 36). Nottingham Forest had 2.9 days of rest, Sunderland 6.1 and had to travel 217 km.
Away travel217 kmRest days2.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Nottingham Forest65%
Draw20%
Sunderland15%
Nottingham Forest63%
Draw22%
Sunderland15%
Nottingham Forest65%
Draw21%
Sunderland15%
Nottingham Forest57%
Draw23%
Sunderland20%
Nottingham Forest63%
Draw21%
Sunderland15%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeTony Harrington
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 73
Team strength
Nottingham ForestSunderland
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
68
AttackIn forecast
62
74
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestSunderland
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
60%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.60
ShotsContext
10.20
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
34%
On target shareContext
26%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
68%
Box shareContext
77%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.60
Shots allowedContext
10.40
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.67
BlocksContext
3.60
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
64%
Save rateContext
88%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
502
PassesContext
392
434
Accurate passesContext
316
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.80
FoulsContext
9.20
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
0.71
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
70%
Scored inContext
40%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
9.90
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.88
34%
On target shareContext
23%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
69%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.80
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.86
BlocksContext
3.30
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
64%
Save rateContext
72%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
446
PassesContext
421
380
Accurate passesContext
346
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.30
FoulsContext
9.80
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,779 km in 14d
Schedule load18%Low
Sunderland
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel217 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 18 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep | 6.1Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 217 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,779 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
35O. Zinchenko
4Morato
31N. Milenković
3N. Williams
8E. Anderson
16N. Domínguez
14D. Ndoye
24J. McAtee
29D. Bakwa
11C. Wood
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
26A. Masuaku
15O. Alderete
20N. Mukiele
32T. Hume
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée
11C. Rigg
7C. Talbi
18W. Isidor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sunderland+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Sunderland · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Nottingham Forest | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| West Ham | L 0–3 H | W 3–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Brentford | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.00 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Nottingham Forest | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 40% | |
| Games | 6 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.00 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 2.60 | 3.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Nottingham Forest | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.00 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.40 | 3.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tony Harrington 73 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.67
Red cards0.12league 0.16
Cards 5+29%league 38%
Fouls21.3league 22.2
Penalties0.25league 0.22
Home wins45%league 47%
Nottingham Forest4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D11 May 25H · Leicester2–23
- W29 Dec 24A · Everton2–01
- W30 Nov 24H · Ipswich1–01
- L11 May 24H · Chelsea2–32
Sunderland2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D29 Dec 23A · Rotherham1–11
- W31 Aug 22H · Rotherham3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest5 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
5
76-90
Sunderland5 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
61-75
8
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
