Nottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.
Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 52). Nottingham Forest had 7 days of rest, West Ham 8.8 and had to travel 175 km.
Away travel175 kmRest days7 · 8.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Nottingham Forest57%
Draw23%
West Ham20%
Nottingham Forest56%
Draw24%
West Ham20%
Nottingham Forest57%
Draw23%
West Ham20%
Nottingham Forest49%
Draw25%
West Ham26%
Nottingham Forest56%
Draw24%
West Ham20%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeCraig Pawson
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 125
Team strength
Nottingham Forest
West Ham
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
68
AttackIn forecast
68
74
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestWest Ham
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
4.00
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
0.65
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
100%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
12.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
30%
On target shareContext
33%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
72%
Box shareContext
67%
20%
ConversionContext
4%
2.00
OffsidesContext
—
9.00
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
—
BlocksContext
1.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
71%
Save rateContext
33%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
466
PassesContext
471
393
Accurate passesContext
404
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.49
9.00
FoulsContext
8.50
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
70%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.50
ShotsContext
11.20
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
33%
On target shareContext
35%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
62%
Box shareContext
73%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.70
OffsidesContext
2.75
13.20
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.88
BlocksContext
3.56
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
68%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
381
PassesContext
474
311
Accurate passesContext
404
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.70
FoulsContext
11.50
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
West Ham
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel175 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 8.8Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 175 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 350 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.9 | 13.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
34T. Aina
8E. Anderson
6I. Sangaré
7C. Hudson-Odoi
10M. Gibbs-White
14D. Ndoye
11C. Wood
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
12E. Diouf
3M. Kilman
15K. Mavropanos
2K. Walker-Peters
8J. Ward-Prowse
28T. Souček
18Mateus Fernandes
10Lucas Paquetá
20J. Bowen
11N. Füllkrug
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- West Ham+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
West Ham · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Nottingham Forest wins0 draws2 West Ham wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets50% · 17%
- 18 May 2025West Ham1–2Nottingham Forest
- 2 Nov 2024Nottingham Forest3–0West Ham
- 17 Feb 2024Nottingham Forest2–0West Ham
- 12 Nov 2023West Ham3–2Nottingham Forest
- 25 Feb 2023West Ham4–0Nottingham Forest
- 14 Aug 2022Nottingham Forest1–0West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.50 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Nottingham Forest | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.50 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 12.00 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 1.00 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Nottingham Forest | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.66 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 2.90 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Craig Pawson 125 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.54
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+41%league 42%
Fouls22.8league 22.5
Penalties0.22league 0.27
Home wins42%league 50%
Nottingham Forest7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L25 Jan 25A · Bournemouth0–53
- W26 Dec 24H · Tottenham1–03
- W25 Oct 24A · Leicester3–13
- D13 Apr 24H · Wolves2–22
- D7 Oct 23A · Crystal Palace0–01
West Ham9 with this referee
Record5-1-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W14 Jan 25H · Fulham3–23
- W25 Nov 24A · Newcastle2–00
- W2 Mar 24A · Everton3–12
- L11 Feb 24H · Arsenal0–64
- L29 Apr 23A · Crystal Palace3–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
West Ham2 games · scored 1 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
