OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 19). OH Leuven had 6.2 days of rest, Anderlecht 3 and had to travel 24 km.
Away travel24 kmRest days6.2 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3
OH Leuven25%
Draw26%
Anderlecht49%
OH Leuven26%
Draw26%
Anderlecht48%
OH Leuven25%
Draw26%
Anderlecht49%
OH Leuven20%
Draw24%
Anderlecht56%
OH Leuven26%
Draw26%
Anderlecht48%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 12
Team strength
OH Leuven
Anderlecht
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
41
17
AttackIn forecast
37
30
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenAnderlecht
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
75%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.38
ShotsContext
15.50
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.63
28%
On target shareContext
36%
8.57
Shots in the boxContext
9.38
73%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.88
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.38
Shots allowedContext
10.50
5.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.13
2.71
BlocksContext
3.13
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.88
64%
Save rateContext
60%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
342
PassesContext
451
262
Accurate passesContext
368
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.91
15.63
FoulsContext
14.50
11.25
Fouls sufferedContext
9.75
3.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.38
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.20
ShotsContext
15.00
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.56
28%
On target shareContext
37%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
71%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.70
Shots allowedContext
10.78
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
3.00
BlocksContext
2.67
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
69%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
357
PassesContext
476
276
Accurate passesContext
400
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.86
14.90
FoulsContext
15.33
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
8.78
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km178 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Anderlecht
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel24 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 24 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 178 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
5T. Ominami
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
30T. Akimoto
8S. Schrijvers
24Ł. Łakomy
27Óscar Gil
19C. Ikwuemesi
39S. Kaba
11C. Terho
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
5M. N'Diaye
55M. Kana
3L. Hey
54K. Sardella
13N. Saliba
74N. De Cat
19N. Angulo
83T. Degreef
21C. Huerta
20L. Vázquez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Anderlecht · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | OH Leuven | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| Zulte Waregem | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Genk | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Antwerp | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–5 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 OH Leuven wins1 draws1 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 21 Jan 2024OH Leuven1–1Anderlecht
- 28 Oct 2023Anderlecht5–1OH Leuven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.63 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 25% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| OH Leuven | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.63 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 25% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 9.63 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.25 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 5.75 | 4.88 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 88% 7/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| OH Leuven | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.01 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 8/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.20 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.81
Red cards0.08league 0.22
Cards 5+42%league 41%
Fouls25.4league 23.1
Penalties0.25league 0.33
Home wins33%league 42%
OH Leuven1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 7.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L4 Nov 23H · KVC Westerlo0–23
Anderlecht1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Jul 25H · KVC Westerlo5–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven8 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
2
4
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Anderlecht8 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
