Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Oct 18 · 17:15 King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Heverlee
OH Leuven 15th · 8 pts · 10 played
0–1Full time
Club Brugge KV 2nd · 20 pts · 10 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Club Brugge KV were clear favourites.

Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 19). Club Brugge KV usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. OH Leuven had 13 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 13 and had to travel 110 km.

Away travel110 kmRest days13 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
OH Leuven16%
Draw22%
Club Brugge KV62%
Expected goals 0.91 – 2.01
OH Leuven16%
Draw22%
Club Brugge KV61%
Expected goals 0.91 – 1.96
OH Leuven16%
Draw22%
Club Brugge KV62%
Expected goals 0.91 – 2.01
OH Leuven12%
Draw19%
Club Brugge KV70%
Expected goals 0.81 – 2.26
OH Leuven16%
Draw22%
Club Brugge KV61%
Expected goals 0.91 – 1.96
Over 2.5 56% Both score 52% Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)

No weather data yet

RefereeBert Verbeke
  • Cards per match 2.0
  • Penalties per match 0.00
  • Matches 5

Team strength

OH LeuvenClub Brugge KV
19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67
18 Current StrengthIn forecast 75
17 AttackIn forecast 86
30 DefenceIn forecast 58
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

OH Leuven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Club Brugge KV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

OH LeuvenClub Brugge KV
0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.60
1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88
-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.10
70% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
11.60 ShotsContext 16.50
4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10
32% On target shareContext 31%
8.33 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
71% Box shareContext 69%
7% ConversionContext 10%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
11.80 Shots allowedContext 11.30
4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90
3.00 BlocksContext 2.50
3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
63% Save rateContext 80%
46% PossessionIn forecast 63%
337 PassesContext 563
259 Accurate passesContext 492
77% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.62 Team ratingContext 7.06
16.60 FoulsContext 9.20
11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90
3.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games
0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.76
1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07
-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.74
70% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
11.60 ShotsContext 17.20
4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.80
32% On target shareContext 40%
8.33 Shots in the boxContext 12.40
71% Box shareContext 68%
7% ConversionContext 15%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.17
11.80 Shots allowedContext 12.00
4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00
3.00 BlocksContext 3.30
3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44
63% Save rateContext 76%
46% PossessionIn forecast 60%
337 PassesContext 543
259 Accurate passesContext 476
77% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.62 Team ratingContext 7.17
16.60 FoulsContext 8.60
11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40
3.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

OH Leuven
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km59 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Club Brugge KV
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel110 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
OH Leuven Club Brugge KV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match13Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 5 Oct13Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 5 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km110 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways59 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

OH Leuven Confirmed XI
3-4-3
1T. Leysen(G)
5T. Ominami 3Noë Dussenne 28E. Pletinckx
30T. Akimoto 24Ł. Łakomy 8S. Schrijvers 27Óscar Gil
10Y. Maziz 19C. Ikwuemesi 33M. Maertens
Club Brugge KV Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
29N. Jackers(G)
14B. Meijer 44B. Mechele 58J. Spileers 65J. Seys
20H. Vanaken 25A. Stanković
8C. Tzolis 11C. Sandra 9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
OH Leuven Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • OH Leuven+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

OH Leuven · Home 1.00points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
1-2-2
Scored
1.20
Conceded
1.40
Club Brugge KV · Away 1.40points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
2-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

OpponentOH LeuvenClub Brugge KV
KVC Westerlo L 0–2 A D 5–5 H
RAAL La Louvière L 1–2 H L 0–1 A
Zulte Waregem L 0–2 A W 1–0 A
Standard Liege W 1–0 H W 2–1 A
Genk L 1–2 H W 2–1 H
Union St. Gilloise L 0–5 A W 1–0 H
Points3 of 18 · 0.50 per game13 of 18 · 2.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 OH Leuven wins0 draws2 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 10 Mar 2024Club Brugge KV3–1OH Leuven
  • 26 Nov 2023OH Leuven0–1Club Brugge KV

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

OH LeuvenClub Brugge KVForecast
Scored per game 0.801.70
Conceded per game 1.901.10
Match goals 2.702.80 2.93
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 50%40% 56%
Over 3.5 30%10%
Both teams scored 50%50% 52%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010
OH LeuvenClub Brugge KVForecast
Scored per game 0.801.70
Conceded per game 1.901.10
Match goals 2.702.80 2.93
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 50%40% 56%
Over 3.5 30%10%
Both teams scored 50%50% 52%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

OH LeuvenClub Brugge KVLeague
Corners
Corners won4.506.67
Corners conceded4.504.44
Match total9.0011.119.56
Over 8.550% 5/1078% 7/9
Over 9.550% 5/1078% 7/9
Over 10.540% 4/1067% 6/9
Cards
Cards3.201.40
Opponent cards2.502.70
Match total5.704.104.19
Over 3.590% 9/1070% 7/10
Over 4.560% 6/1040% 4/10
OH LeuvenClub Brugge KVLeague
Corners
Corners won4.506.33
Corners conceded4.505.00
Match total9.0011.339.56
Over 8.550% 5/1067% 6/9
Over 9.550% 5/1067% 6/9
Over 10.540% 4/1056% 5/9
Cards
Cards3.201.20
Opponent cards2.502.50
Match total5.703.704.19
Over 3.590% 9/1060% 6/10
Over 4.560% 6/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bert Verbeke 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.00league 3.94
Red cards0.00league 0.23
Cards 5+0%league 44%
Fouls19.8league 22.9
Penalties0.00league 0.30
Home wins60%league 42%
OH Leuven

No previous matches with this referee.

Club Brugge KV

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

OH Leuven10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
2 4 0-15
4 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 5 76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
1 4 0-15
1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 2 76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
2 4 0-15
4 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 5 76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 25 · conceded 12
4 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
10 1 31-45
4 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
RAAL La Louvière KVC Westerlo 00 OH Leuven Club Brugge KV 01 Union St. Gilloise Charleroi 31 Cercle Brugge Genk 22 Dender KV Mechelen 13 St. Truiden Anderlecht 22 Zulte Waregem Gent 41 Standard Liege Antwerp 10