OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
OH Leuven
14th · 28 pts · 27 played
DWWLL
First leg0–2
0–1Full time
KVC Westerlo
8th · 35 pts · 27 played
WLWWD
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards KVC Westerlo. OH Leuven had 6.8 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 6 and had to travel 29 km.
Away travel29 kmRest days6.8 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
OH Leuven39%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo34%
OH Leuven41%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo32%
OH Leuven39%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo34%
OH Leuven32%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo41%
OH Leuven39%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo34%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 39
Team strength
OH LeuvenKVC Westerlo
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
17
AttackIn forecast
42
30
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenKVC Westerlo
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.26
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
70%
Scored inContext
59%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.96
ShotsContext
13.81
4.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.73
32%
On target shareContext
33%
8.69
Shots in the boxContext
9.62
67%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.84
OffsidesContext
1.53
13.07
Shots allowedContext
12.26
4.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.85
3.46
BlocksContext
4.13
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.62
68%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
332
PassesContext
379
255
Accurate passesContext
302
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.87
15.26
FoulsContext
11.11
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.93
3.04
Yellow cardsContext
1.59
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.60
ShotsContext
11.00
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
30%
On target shareContext
40%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
68%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.86
14.90
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
4.50
BlocksContext
4.67
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
69%
Save rateContext
65%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
334
PassesContext
385
253
Accurate passesContext
303
76%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.81
13.70
FoulsContext
10.70
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
3.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km268 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KVC Westerlo
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel29 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
KVC Westerlo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 29 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 268 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
16M. Prévot(G)
30T. Akimoto
34R. Nyakossi
28E. Pletinckx
14H. Teklab
8S. Schrijvers
4B. Verstraete
27Óscar Gil
10Y. Maziz
19C. Ikwuemesi
17K. Vaesen
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
5Seiji Kimura
33R. Neustädter
40E. Bayram
22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer
13I. Sakamoto
7A. Sayyadmanesh
29B. Gouré
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
1.08points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-5
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.31
KVC Westerlo · Away
1.08points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-5
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.85
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | OH Leuven | KVC Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | L 1–5 AD 1–1 H | W 4–0 HL 2–5 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | D 5–5 A |
| Dender | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Gent | W 3–1 AW 4–0 H | L 0–2 AD 0–0 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 0–0 HL 0–5 A | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–4 HW 3–0 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Cercle Brugge | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Genk | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Antwerp | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Charleroi | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 28 of 78 · 1.08 per game | 32 of 78 · 1.23 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 OH Leuven wins0 draws2 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 5 Oct 2025KVC Westerlo2–0OH Leuven
- 3 Feb 2024KVC Westerlo0–3OH Leuven
- 4 Nov 2023OH Leuven0–2KVC Westerlo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 1.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.67 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 37% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 37% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 41% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| OH Leuven | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.10 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.85 | 4.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.77 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 10.62 | 9.80 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 17/26 | 65% 17/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 16/26 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% 15/26 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.07 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.37 | 1.85 | |
| Match total | 5.44 | 3.55 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 21/27 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 16/27 | 30% 8/27 | |
| OH Leuven | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.10 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 12.70 | 9.89 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 3.50 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 3.87
Red cards0.23league 0.20
Cards 5+51%league 41%
Fouls22.3league 22.7
Penalties0.13league 0.31
Home wins49%league 41%
OH Leuven6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L13 Sep 25A · Zulte Waregem0–24
- D27 Jul 25H · Charleroi2–22
- L26 Nov 23H · Club Brugge KV0–14
- L28 Oct 23A · Anderlecht1–51
- W23 Sep 23A · KV Mechelen2–13
KVC Westerlo3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Mar 24A · KV Mechelen1–31
- W7 Oct 23H · Kortrijk1–02
- L2 Sep 23A · Cercle Brugge1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven27 games · scored 29 · conceded 42
4
7
0-15
3
7
16-30
6
5
31-45
3
9
46-60
6
4
61-75
7
10
76-90
KVC Westerlo27 games · scored 34 · conceded 38
6
3
0-15
5
6
16-30
5
12
31-45
6
3
46-60
7
4
61-75
5
10
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
