OH Leuven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
OH Leuven
14th · 28 pts · 27 played
DWWLL
First leg0–2
0–1Full time
KVC Westerlo
8th · 35 pts · 27 played
WLWWD
OH Leuven38.6%fair odds 2.59
Draw27.4%fair odds 3.64
KVC Westerlo33.9%fair odds 2.95
Expected goals1.37 – 1.27total 2.64
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| OH Leuven ↓ · KVC Westerlo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are OH Leuven goals, columns KVC Westerlo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.65
- 1–09.1%10.95
- 2–18.5%11.76
- 0–18.4%11.89
- 1–27.9%12.69
- 0–07.8%12.81
- 2–06.7%14.92
- 0–25.8%17.38
- 2–25.4%18.54
- 3–13.9%25.76
Winning margin
6.6%
OH Leuven by 3+
fair 15.16
11.5%
OH Leuven by 2
fair 8.67
20.5%
OH Leuven by 1
fair 4.88
27.4%
Draw
fair 3.64
18.9%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 5.28
9.9%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 10.10
5.1%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 19.62
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
OH Leuven goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
KVC Westerlo goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven win | 38.6% | 39.2% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 27.4% | 27.0% | +0.4 pp |
| KVC Westerlo win | 33.9% | 33.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.1% | 50.9% | -1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.3% | 55.6% | -1.3 pp |
| Expected goals OH Leuven | 1.37 | 1.41 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.27 | 1.30 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- OH Leuven win38.6%2.59
- Draw27.4%3.64
- KVC Westerlo win33.9%2.95
- Double chance OH Leuven or draw66.1%1.51
- Double chance OH Leuven or KVC Westerlo72.6%1.38
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw61.4%1.63
- Draw no bet OH Leuven53.2%1.88
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo46.8%2.14
Goals
- Over 0.592.2%1.08
- Over 1.574.6%1.34
- Over 2.549.1%2.04
- Over 3.527.2%3.67
- Over 4.512.8%7.81
- Under 1.525.4%3.94
- Under 2.550.9%1.96
- Under 3.572.8%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes54.3%1.84
- No45.7%2.19
- Yes and over 2.541.2%2.43
- OH Leuven win and yes18.3%5.46
- Draw and yes19.6%5.09
- KVC Westerlo win and yes16.3%6.13
Team goals
- OH Leuven over 0.574.6%1.34
- OH Leuven over 1.539.8%2.52
- OH Leuven over 2.515.9%6.28
- KVC Westerlo over 0.571.9%1.39
- KVC Westerlo over 1.536.2%2.76
- KVC Westerlo over 2.513.6%7.37
- OH Leuven clean sheet28.1%3.56
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet25.4%3.93
- OH Leuven win to nil20.3%4.92
- KVC Westerlo win to nil17.6%5.68
Handicap
- OH Leuven −1.518.1%5.52
- OH Leuven −2.56.6%15.16
- KVC Westerlo +1.581.9%1.22
- KVC Westerlo +2.593.4%1.07
- KVC Westerlo −1.515.0%6.67
- OH Leuven +1.585.0%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored217
Favourite won43.8%
Avg chance given to result37.4%
1X2 Brier0.633
Over 2.5 called right53.5%
BTTS called right50.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 41 | 38.0% | 34.1% |
| 40–50% | 97 | 44.8% | 36.1% |
| 50–60% | 54 | 54.7% | 53.7% |
| 60–70% | 21 | 64.6% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 171 of 217 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6427 | 0.6302 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.1% | 38.0% |
| Favourite won | 42.7% | 43.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 171 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗RAAL La Louvière 0–0 Antwerp33·30·37
- ✗Cercle Brugge 0–0 Dender52·25·23
- ✓Charleroi 1–2 Club Brugge KV21·22·57
- ✗KVC Westerlo 0–0 Union St. Gilloise25·27·48
- ✓Genk 3–0 Gent58·22·20
- ✓Anderlecht 5–1 OH Leuven51·24·25
- ✗Antwerp 1–0 St. Truiden32·27·41
- ✓KV Mechelen 2–1 Zulte Waregem53·24·24
- ✗Standard Liege 1–1 RAAL La Louvière48·29·23
- ✓KVC Westerlo 2–1 Charleroi44·26·30
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 217 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.