OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Standard Liege were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 21). OH Leuven had 6.9 days of rest, Standard Liege 7.9 and had to travel 66 km.
Away travel66 kmRest days6.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
OH Leuven38%
Draw28%
Standard Liege34%
OH Leuven39%
Draw27%
Standard Liege34%
OH Leuven38%
Draw28%
Standard Liege34%
OH Leuven32%
Draw28%
Standard Liege40%
OH Leuven39%
Draw27%
Standard Liege34%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 28
Team strength
OH Leuven
Standard Liege
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
17
AttackIn forecast
29
30
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStandard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenStandard Liege
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.80
ShotsContext
8.80
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
29%
On target shareContext
43%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
83%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
15.60
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.75
BlocksContext
5.20
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
60%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
307
PassesContext
361
233
Accurate passesContext
286
76%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.91
15.00
FoulsContext
8.60
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.50
ShotsContext
10.20
3.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
24%
On target shareContext
40%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
74%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.89
12.60
Shots allowedContext
14.20
5.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.67
BlocksContext
4.00
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
67%
Save rateContext
72%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
372
PassesContext
420
290
Accurate passesContext
339
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.50
FoulsContext
9.60
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km87 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Standard Liege
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel66 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
Standard Liege |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 66 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 87 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 12.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
5T. Ominami
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
30T. Akimoto
8S. Schrijvers
24Ł. Łakomy
77T. Vlietinck
22J. Mijatović
11C. Terho
9A. Traoré
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
18H. Lawrence
24J. Homawoo
29D. Dierckx
13M. Fossey
94C. Nielsen
23M. Ilaimaharitra
17R. Saïd
8N. Mehssatou
7T. Mohr
9T. Henry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Standard Liege-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Standard Liege · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | OH Leuven | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| Dender | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Genk | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–5 A | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 OH Leuven wins0 draws2 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 10 Feb 2024Standard Liege1–0OH Leuven
- 30 Sep 2023OH Leuven1–2Standard Liege
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.60 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| OH Leuven | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.60 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 7.80 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.00 | 3.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| OH Leuven | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 9.20 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 3.30 | 3.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.04league 3.60
Red cards0.43league 0.19
Cards 5+61%league 33%
Fouls22.4league 23.0
Penalties0.11league 0.33
Home wins39%league 45%
OH Leuven2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L2 Mar 24H · Union St. Gilloise0–23
- D18 Aug 23H · Antwerp1–14
Standard Liege1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W26 Jul 25A · RAAL La Louvière2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven5 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Standard Liege5 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
