OH Leuven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
OH Leuven38.5%fair odds 2.60
Draw28.0%fair odds 3.57
Standard Liege33.5%fair odds 2.99
Expected goals1.32 – 1.22total 2.54
Likeliest score1–113.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| OH Leuven ↓ · Standard Liege → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are OH Leuven goals, columns Standard Liege goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%7.48
- 1–09.7%10.26
- 0–18.9%11.21
- 0–08.5%11.70
- 2–18.4%11.91
- 1–27.7%12.93
- 2–06.9%14.51
- 0–25.8%17.11
- 2–25.1%19.55
- 3–13.7%27.00
Winning margin
6.3%
OH Leuven by 3+
fair 15.89
11.4%
OH Leuven by 2
fair 8.75
20.7%
OH Leuven by 1
fair 4.82
28.0%
Draw
fair 3.57
19.0%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 5.25
9.7%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 10.32
4.8%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 20.96
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
11%5+
OH Leuven goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Standard Liege goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven win | 38.5% | 39.0% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 28.0% | 27.2% | +0.9 pp |
| Standard Liege win | 33.5% | 33.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.7% | 50.3% | -3.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.3% | 55.2% | -2.8 pp |
| Expected goals OH Leuven | 1.32 | 1.40 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 1.22 | 1.29 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- OH Leuven win38.5%2.60
- Draw28.0%3.57
- Standard Liege win33.5%2.99
- Double chance OH Leuven or draw66.5%1.50
- Double chance OH Leuven or Standard Liege72.0%1.39
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw61.5%1.62
- Draw no bet OH Leuven53.4%1.87
- Draw no bet Standard Liege46.6%2.15
Goals
- Over 0.591.5%1.09
- Over 1.572.8%1.37
- Over 2.546.7%2.14
- Over 3.525.1%3.98
- Over 4.511.4%8.74
- Under 1.527.2%3.67
- Under 2.553.3%1.88
- Under 3.574.9%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes52.3%1.91
- No47.7%2.10
- Yes and over 2.539.0%2.57
- OH Leuven win and yes17.4%5.74
- Draw and yes19.5%5.13
- Standard Liege win and yes15.4%6.49
Team goals
- OH Leuven over 0.573.4%1.36
- OH Leuven over 1.538.1%2.62
- OH Leuven over 2.514.8%6.75
- Standard Liege over 0.570.4%1.42
- Standard Liege over 1.534.4%2.91
- Standard Liege over 2.512.5%8.03
- OH Leuven clean sheet29.6%3.38
- Standard Liege clean sheet26.6%3.75
- OH Leuven win to nil21.0%4.76
- Standard Liege win to nil18.1%5.53
Handicap
- OH Leuven −1.517.7%5.64
- OH Leuven −2.56.3%15.89
- Standard Liege +1.582.3%1.22
- Standard Liege +2.593.7%1.07
- Standard Liege −1.514.5%6.91
- OH Leuven +1.585.5%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored42
Favourite won47.6%
Avg chance given to result38.4%
1X2 Brier0.604
Over 2.5 called right54.8%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.9% | 14.3% |
| 40–50% | 25 | 44.4% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 55.2% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 64.2% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 8 of 42 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5474 | 0.6027 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 40.4% |
| Favourite won | 62.5% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 8 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Gent 1–1 Club Brugge KV27·26·48
- ✓Charleroi 3–1 Dender41·27·32
- ✗KVC Westerlo 2–0 Antwerp27·27·46
- ✓KV Mechelen 3–2 RAAL La Louvière49·27·24
- ✗Cercle Brugge 1–1 St. Truiden42·27·31
- ✗Dender 0–1 OH Leuven48·27·25
- ✗RAAL La Louvière 0–0 Union St. Gilloise25·26·49
- ✓Antwerp 2–1 KV Mechelen50·26·23
- ✗Zulte Waregem 0–2 St. Truiden40·27·33
- ✗Standard Liege 0–3 Cercle Brugge45·27·28
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 42 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.